Doug Marrone exit less about Sammy Watkins, more about EJ Manuel

NFL head coaches don’t voluntarily step aside if they have stability under center, which may have been why the second-year man left Orchard Park

While it’s been reported that Doug Marrone opted out of his contract with the Buffalo Bills due to his objection to the trade the club made for wide receiver Sammy Watkins, in all likelihood it has more to do with his lack of faith in quarterback EJ Manuel.

Manuel, the team’s first-round pick in the 2013 NFL draft out of Florida State, has not lived up to expectations so far, answering his injury-riddled rookie year by being benched this season in favor of replacement-level veteran Kyle Orton. With Orton somewhat surprisingly deciding to retire — not to mention no first rounder in the upcoming draft to perhaps upgrade at the game’s most important position thanks to the Watkins deal — Marrone decided to test the free-agent coaching waters.

Despite the fact that Manuel was given no better than a second- or third-round grade by a lot of talent evaluators coming out of college, it’s hard to blame the Bills — even with the benefit of hindsight — for handing him the keys to the offense at No. 16 overall in Round 1. A 6-5, 237-pound physical specimen that ran the 40-yard dash in 4.65 seconds at the Scouting Combine, the former Seminole put some flashes of brilliance on tape, albeit wrapped around frustrating bouts of inconsistency and ineffectiveness. He came from a good family, was a standout student and answered every question with “Yes, sir” or “No, sir,” so he certainly had the look and feel of a face-of-the-franchise player both on and off the field.

However, 14 starts into his career and sporting a 6-8 record, Manuel has put together a pedestrian passer rating of 78.6, been largely ineffective as a scrambler (3.3 yards per carry) and failed to make a devoted Buffalo fan base believe in him.

Look at the eight teams remaining in the NFL playoffs — you’ll gain some appreciation for why Marrone left what appeared to be an organization on the rise. Each and every one of them has a Pro Bowl-caliber player lining up under center: the Baltimore Ravens (Joe Flacco), New England Patriots (Tom Brady), Indianapolis Colts (Andrew Luck) and Denver Broncos (Peyton Manning) in the AFC, and then the Carolina Panthers (Cam Newton), Seattle Seahawks (Russell Wilson), Dallas Cowboys (Tony Romo) and Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers) in the NFC.

Had Manuel developed into even a competent starter — nobody expected him to be an All-Pro by Year 2, of course — and still had some upside left in the tank, Marrone probably would have considered sticking around Orchard Park and building his scheme around him. Watkins has all the makings of a game-changing wideout, registering 65 catches for 965 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie despite battling various injuries, plus a defensive line featuring tackles Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams and ends Jerry Hughes and Mario Williams helps keep the opponent off the scoreboard. Buffalo may have the best chance at challenging perennial powerhouse New England in the AFC East next season, or at least a better chance than the Jekyll-and-Hyde Miami Dolphins or rebuilding-again New York Jets.

Had Manuel developed into even a competent starter and still had some upside left in the tank, Marrone probably would have considered sticking around Orchard Park and building his scheme around him.

Manuel’s former coach at FSU, Jimbo Fisher, has been supportive to a fault when it comes to his current QB, Jameis Winston, who is a dream come true in the huddle but a nightmare of epic proportions everywhere else.

Even though Manuel was Fisher’s first big get on the recruiting trail back in 2008, apparently he expressed some reservations about his future as a passer in the pros. Because I covered the ‘Noles personally for two years, Fisher once joked to me that GMs run prospects through the ringer during pre-draft evaluations, but rarely does one simply pick up the phone and ask him for an honest opinion — after all, he should know better than anybody.

What the Bills do in 2015 is anyone’s guess, as Manuel and one-time undrafted free agent Jeff Tuel are the only QBs currently at the facility. Having no first-round choice — it would have been No. 19 — means the front office doesn’t have nearly enough ammunition to move up for one of the two premier passers expected to be available in the draft: the aforementioned Winston and Oregon’s Marcus Mariota. Free agency leaves a lot to be desired, as the likes of Mark Sanchez and Brian Hoyer aren’t an improvement over Orton, and the trade market is highlighted by the maddeningly frustrating Jay Cutler.

Nevertheless, going back to Manuel would be a tough sell at this point, especially since the new coach won’t have any reason to be loyal to him.

It’s easy to look at Manuel and see the potential, as he has ideal size, a strong arm, nimble feet, a commendable work ethic and a wonderful personality. But it’s worth noting that Winston won a Heisman Trophy and a national championship in 2013 as a redshirt freshman with essentially the same cast around him — Manuel, a fifth-year senior in 2012, ended his garnet-and-gold career nowhere near the BCS title game.

The NFL is all about throwing the ball these days, and Buffalo is in no position to do so going forward with uncertainty at quarterback and a receiving corps with marginal talent behind Watkins. It’s not like the Bills can lean on a powerful ground game to compensate — they finished 22nd in the league in rushing — as Fred Jackson isn’t the every-down back he used to be and C.J. Spiller has durability issues. Counting on the defense to keep making up the difference is unwise, not with the league annually implementing rule changes that solely benefit the aerial attack.

Even if Marrone did storm out of the Buffalo war room once the Watkins blockbuster was done, he might have stormed right back in this spring had Manuel proven he could get the ball to his new weapon consistently.

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