Introducing Nylon Calculus Watchability Rankings

Feb 20, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors point guard Stephen Curry (30) scores a basket against Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard (12) during the fourth quarter at Oracle Arena. The Golden State Warriors defeated the Houston Rockets 102-99 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Starting this week, Nylon Calculus will be posting Watchability Rankings—an attempt to quantify which games each week project to be the most or least entertaining.

Everybody has different taste regarding what style of basketball they prefer, though, which isn’t bad but nonetheless worth noting. So while there’s hope that the rankings here will show a decent evaluation by accounting for things like strength of teams, flow, and a dose of highlights, this is all still subjective and will not catch everything that makes a game great or a grind. The rankings might end up being a little silly, but hopefully also fun.

To measure and rank Watchability, I put together a formula using ten statistical categories, each averaged between the two teams in a matchup and then compared with every other game in a week. A game that ranks last in a stat for the week would be given just one point, while first place would be awarded ten[1. For example, if Philadelphia-Orlando (last place in average offensive rating) and Toronto-Dallas (first place) were matchups this week, the former game would be given 1 point to that statistic and the latter 10 points.], everything is then scaled between that one and ten. With ten statistics total this would generate a matchup’s watchability score between 10 to 100 points. As you’ll see further down, though, neither of those scores is all that possible.

Below were the statistics included. All possession-related stats were with the help of Darryl Blackport’s efficiency and pace statistics:

• Net Rating Difference: The larger the difference, the worse. Rewards games with either playoff seeding or lottery ball implications, harms potential blowouts.
• Net Rating Sum: Two dominant teams should usually make for a great game.
• Offensive Rating: All of the efficiently scored points!
• Pace: The faster, the better.
• Three-Point Rate: Struggling here has a trickle-down effect on quite a few other measurements thrown into the formula[2. Several of these statistics overlap].
• Team Free Throw Rate: Scaled backwards to penalize stoppages in play. Ten points to the lowest free throw rates, one point to the highest.
• Opponent Free Throw Rate: Same measurement as team free throw rate, and something, anything to account for defense.
• Dunks per 100 possessions: A statistic to reward highlights.
• Fast Break Points per 100 possessions: The more quickly-and-efficiently-scored points, the better.
• Assist to Turnover Ratio: A way to account for passing.

So with 48 games between today and January 18, we had a sizeable sample to work with in terms of ranking matchups against each other. Below is each game and their score, sorted from highest to lowest. Afterwords, I’ll explain why certain matchups were the best and worst:

It might be disappointing to see no games close to the score of 10 or 100, but this is very common. Experimenting over the last couple weeks with game samples from 50 to 435 games, the latter being every possible game combo, showed that the range usually lies between 35 and 85 points.

On to the best and worst five games, at least measured by the formula:

The Top 5

Golden State @ Houston, Saturday: Golden State is one of the teams that makes every matchup soar in the rankings, from bad to decent and from decent to great. There’s nearly a 25-point difference between their game against Houston and the 25th-ranked Houston-Brooklyn. The Warriors’ dominance on both sides of the floor, just how they go about doing that, and their fast pace on offense means they’re likely to be somewhere in the top five once every week. Their game at Houston scored a perfect 10 in four different categories: Net rating sum, three-point rate, fast break points per 100, and pace.

L.A. Clippers @ Portland, Wednesday: The only other game with a score in the 70s, Portland-L.A. scored a 9.5 or better in net rating difference, net rating sum, offensive rating, and assist-to-turnover ratio. Pace and fast break points were what held this game back from a first-place ranking.

Atlanta @ Toronto, Friday: A notch below the first two matchups, but hey, we have a showdown between two Eastern Conference teams with really, really good records! Holding this game back was pace, dunks, and fast break points, but the Raptors and Hawks are first and fifth in offensive rating, respectively, which helped in most other measurements.

Golden State @ Oklahoma City, Friday: Friday is unfortunately the last matchup between the Warriors and Thunder, at least in the regular season. Had one more matchup been scheduled a couple months from now, this might be the most entertaining of that given week. Right now, though, the difference in net rating (remember: the larger the difference, the worse) and the Thunder’s average offensive rating are what put Golden State-Oklahoma City a notch below the top three games.

Dallas @ Denver and Denver @ Dallas, Wednesday and Friday: Two matchups this week, so one is bound to not make me look stupid. This game ranked between 5.9 to 9.5 in every statistic except opponent free throw rate, where Denver ranks 30th.

The Bottom 5

Miami @ Sacramento, Friday: Watchability strongly dislikes the Miami Heat. Their net rating is 25th, they play slow, they have a good (but here it’s bad) free throw rate as well as their opponent, and worst of all they’ve rarely dunked! Sacramento’s league-leading free throw rate didn’t help, and this game would rate a bit better if DeMarcus Cousins, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade hadn’t missed a chunk of games already.

We should get a matchup between Cousins and Hassan Whiteside, though. A battle for the ages.

Miami @ L.A. Lakers, Tuesday: If only swag per 100 possessions was taken into account.

Minnesota @ Indiana, Tuesday: Another team watchability strongly dislikes is Indiana. Minnesota likely helps this score if they were anything near healthy. Andrew Wiggins has been on the rise, though, so maybe that’s enough to tune in periodically.

New York @ Milwaukee, Thursday: Scoring a perfect 10 in average team free throw rate saves this matchup from being the least entertaining. This matchup rates ‘meh’ to really bad in just about everything else, though, and with the way the Knicks have been headed it would rank lower in a couple months.

New Orleans @ Philadelphia, Friday: With the way watchability is constructed, Philadelphia’s offense unfortunately drags a lot of games down. This would be different had the formula included more defensive statistics since they’re not too shabby on that side of the floor. New Orleans-Philadelphia at least brings a showdown between Anthony Davis and Nerlens Noel, and it’s worth noting that Philadelphia’s riding a two (!!!) game winning streak.