Dion Waiters and Overrating ‘Rare’ NBA Skills
Jan 7, 2015; Sacramento, CA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Dion Waiters (23) drives in ahead of Sacramento Kings guard Nik Stauskas (10) during the second quarter at Sleep Train Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
In the first episode of the Analytics Salon on Nylon Calculus, the topic of discussion was Dion Waiters vs. Bradley Beal, in particular which was more valuable — Beal’s shooting or Waiters’ shot creation (although it’s notable that Beal wasn’t actually a better shooter last season on catch-and-shoot opportunities, but is so this year by a wide margin). The ability to break down the defense off-the-dribble, creating something out of nothing in isolation situations is one of the hallmark differentiators between a good player and a star in the NBA, especially for wings and guards.
Waiters has a bit of that off-the-bounce magic and, compared to Beal, he takes a larger share of his shots after multiple dribbles and he’s better at making them.
Dion Waiters vs. Bradley Beal in Effective FG% and Frequency of Shots by number of dribbles.
Waiters can create for himself and for others, shots that wouldn’t otherwise be there, which is considered to be a rare and valuable skill. However, I’m of the thinking that in most situations and for most teams, Waiters’ skill set isn’t actually as useful as one might think. So far in his career, Waiters has needed the ball to be successful, but there’s only so much Usage Rate and dribbles to go around on every lineup that plays, and allocating a significant portion of that to a player that at best produces points for his team at a poor efficiency is a bad decision.
Even on shots that Waiters makes from 20-feet at the end of the shot clock, which look darn impressive when they go in, you have to ask whether this was really the most efficient shot the offense could create with seven seconds on the shot clock. Waiters plays with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and with those two on the floor even a single Dion Waiters isolation is not the best option. Now, Scott Brooks will still sit both of those guys for relatively long stretches at a time and Waiters may be the only “shot creator” along with Reggie Jackson on the court, which is a different issue. But there are too many possessions that Waiters hijacks and takes a contested long jumper with 10+ seconds on the shot clock.
According to Basketball-Reference, this season there are 15 players in the top-100 in Usage Percentage that have a True Shooting% below 50.0 percent, and in 10 of those cases their respective teams have been worse on offense with them on the court. You have to be very careful when picking who are your high usage players, and considering at what point a team is better off trying to distribute those shots to other players who may have to stretch their games a little instead of relying on a player that thrives with the ball in their hands. Waiters may have an elite skill in creating shots, but that skill isn’t useful as long as he is one of the least efficient players in the NBA (or when there are better options available when he’s on the court and ways to scrape together enough “usage” even without him).
With any combination of Ibaka, Jackson, Westbrook and Durant, there should always be enough offense and usage on the court at the same time. Adding Waiters to take more shots and hold the ball would perceivably only be useful if the Thunder were were in desperate need of someone who can dribble the ball. Especially considering that Waiters will either take shots away from Durant and Westbrook, or be a complete non-contributor on both ends, when they are on the floor.
If the Thunder let Reggie Jackson walk in restricted free agency this summer, the equation changes and maybe Waiters’ skill set may become more relevant and helpful for the Thunder. But even in that case Waiters can’t use a fourth of his teams possessions when he’s on the floor without approaching the mid-50’s in True Shooting%. Players like Kyle Korver and Tyson Chandler are the complete opposite in many ways. Neither has to touch the ball to bend the defense in their direction. And it’s likely that those guys are perpetually underrated and we overrate players whose primary skill is doing stuff with the ball.