Lou Williams and Fitting In

Mar 18, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard Lou Williams (23) dribbles past Minnesota Timberwolves forward Andrew Wiggins (22) and forward Adreian Payne (3) during the second half of the Raptors 105-100 win at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Some[1. Myself definitely included.] shrugged their shoulders at the Raptors’ acquisition of Lou Williams. A year off of ACL surgery, entering his 1oth season in the league with his athleticism seemingly starting to decline, he didn’t figure to be much of a difference-maker. If anything the Raptors ridding themselves of John Salmons and taking a flyer on a second Brazilian prospect, Bebe Nogueira, to pair with surprise draft pick Bruno Caboclo were seen as the real benefits of the trade. Williams had underwhelming, to say the least in Atlanta, posting a career low PER[1. Ignoring the 145 minutes he played as a 19-year old rookie. This was especially worrying considering PER is a stat which tends to favor the volume scorer]. and by far the worst on/off splits of his career with the Hawks playing over 8 points per 100 possessions better with him off the floor than on in 2013/14.

With Williams being announced as the winner of the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award today, it’s pretty clear reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated. Now more than a full-season past his major knee surgery, Williams regained what has always been his best talent – the ability to score efficiently by way of drawing lots and lots of fouls. After posting the lowest foul drawing rates of his career[2. Again, ignoring his teenage cameo] in his two partial Atlanta seasons, Williams jumped all the way back up to 10.1 FTA per 100 possessions. For a middling three point shooter who rarely gets all the way to the rim, these free throws are necessary for him to score at any real efficiency and volume, and Williams was at or near career highs in both True Shooting Percentage and Usage rate this season. [3. All stats in this paragraph via Basketball Reference]

However, it’s unlikely simple physical recovery explains all of his success. The notion of “fit” is often talked about, but more commonly in terms of personality and meshing with teammates as people. Speaking to the excellent Holly MacKenzie, Williams credited the closeness of this Raptors team for enabling his success. There’s no reason to doubt the truth of those statements, or the effect that bond has on his play – “confidence” is a real factor that analytics has yet to really begin to address in almost any sporting context.

But Williams bounce-back year wasn’t just about team dinners and home visits. None of that would matter much if he didn’t fit with how the Raptors played on the court. Especially in comparison with Mike Budenholzer’s version of the Hawks, the Raps were a far better fit skill and style-wise.

For better or for worse, Williams is a ball-stopping player. Among the 323 players with at least 1500 possessions played this past season, Williams averaged taking 4 dribbles before each shot was 42nd in most average dribbles before each shot, . He was 36th in the amount of time he’d possessed the ball before each shot, holding it an average of 4.6 seconds before letting fly. While 80th percentile or so in both categories might not seem especially high, the tops of both lists are dominated by pure point guards and primary ball-handlers who end up initiating and creating off the dribble on a decent chunk of possessions. Every player who dribbled more or held the ball longer on each shot was more in that sort of role than Williams. His 10.7% time of possession was the significantly lower than players who dribbled more or held longer before shooting, the next closest being Austin Rivers and Kobe Bryant at 15% each. To put it in lay terms, no player who’s primary role was more devoted to pure scoring held the ball more or dribbled more often prior to shooting.[4. Above stats via SportVU shot log data.]

Why does this matter? Well, the Hawks are not a team which plays that way. They epitomized the ball-and-player movement ethos better than any team in the league this season. The proportion of Atlanta’s field goal attempts set up by teammates were the highest of any team in the league. The lowest proportion? Toronto:

Similarly, the Raptors as a team averaged the second most dribbles and second longest time with the ball prior to shooting in the league (behind only and unsurprisingly the Cavaliers), while the Hawks were quicker than average on both fronts/:

In fact, those rankings probably undersell the difference between the two teams, as Toronto was a decent offensive rebounding team while Atlanta used the lowest percentage possessions on offensive putbacks of any team in the NBA. As those putbacks  typically occur quickly and with few or no dribbles, with average offensive rebounding, the Hawks would likely appear to be shooting off of fewer dribbles and shorter touch times.

In any event, given Williams propensity to possess the ball, and dribble into shots, it’s no surprise he worked better within a team concept already accepting of that style of play. And this is a style difference most of all. For all that the above may seem like a critique of Toronto’s style, it worked. The Raps 108.1 offensive rating was 3rd in the NBA, four spots ahead of Atlanta. Even though it might look ugly and ungainly on nights when shots aren’t falling,[5. See Game One against Washington.] the Raptors had the players to make this style work. And it was a style which fits Lou Williams’ skills much better than Atlanta. It’s that fit, more than simple camaraderie, that allowed Williams to take home this year’s first post-season award.