Does it pay off to trade up to draft a QB?

With all the talk of teams trading up to draft Marcus Mariota at #2, how has it worked out for teams trading up to draft a QB in the past?

Since the year 2000 there have been 15 instances of teams trading up in the first round to draft a quarterback. The most recent of these was the Cleveland Browns trading up to draft Johnny Manziel and the Minnesota Vikings trading into the first round to draft Teddy Bridgewater last year. While it’s definitely too early to evaluate either quarterback, Manziel is trending towards bust and Bridgewater actually showed some quality play in Minnesota.

Going back further to 2012 is the perhaps now infamous RG3 trade. The Washington Redskins traded up from the 6th overall pick to the 2nd overall pick by trading their 6th, 2013 first, 2014 first, and 2012 2nd. Ironically the St. Louis Rams got a 2nd overall pick in 2014 out of that trade when the Redskins finished 4-12. That record should tell you something about the success of the trade.

With such an exorbitant price it would have been near impossible for Robert Griffen III to justify the cost. During the 2012 season he actually made many critics of the trade begin to question whether or not it was such a terrible deal for Washington or not. But in the 2012 Wild Card round against the Seattle Seahawks, RG3 tore his ACL on a non-contact play and he hasn’t been the same since. Despite winning Rookie of the Year in 2012, the trade has been disastrous for Washington.

Between 2009-2011 there were four quarterbacks that teams traded up to draft in the first round. This is an ignominious list to be on. The four quarterbacks drafted were Blaine Gabbert by the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tim Tebow by the Denver Broncos, Josh Freeman by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Mark Sanchez by the New York Jets. Unfortunately, the most successful quarterback of that bunch is Sanchez and it’s hard to say that he’s been anything but an average to below-average quarterback with some unfortunate highlights. None of these quarterbacks currently has a starting role, though Sanchez is potentially contending for one in Philadelphia.

You can find some success for teams trading up if you go back further than 2009. In 2008 the Baltimore Ravens drafted Joe Flacco, who has performed well and even led the Ravens to a Super Bowl win in 2012 with a stunning postseason performance. In 2006 the Denver Broncos traded up to draft Jay Cutler, and while everyone has an opinion, good or bad on Jay Cutler, he has proven himself to be a competent starter with a long career in the NFL.

In 2004 the New York Giants traded up to draft Eli Manning who, despite putting up absurd numbers of interceptions in recent years, has won two Super Bowls and has never missed a game since he took over in 2004 from QB Kurt Warner. Lastly, in 2001 the Atlanta Falcons traded up for Michael Vick. Mike Vick didn’t prove to have a long career in Atlanta, but he did prove himself to be a flashy player with gaudy rushing numbers and a definite quality starter in his prime.

Unfortunately, there are a number of busts between 2000-2009 as well. The Cleveland Browns traded up in 2007 to draft Brady Quinn. The Redskins traded up in 2005 to draft Jason Campbell. The Buffalo Bills traded up in 2004 to draft J.P. Losman. And in 2003, the Ravens traded up for Kyle Boller. None of these quarterbacks panned out.

If we’re looking at this list then we’ve got four quarterbacks in fifteen that may have been worth trading up for, two that we are unsure of, and of that least only two have gone on to win a Super Bowl. Based on the asking price of the Tennessee Titans, it’s looking as though whomever trades up to draft Mariota may have to pay a comparable price to what the Redskins paid for RG3. Could that really be worth it to any team? I don’t think so.