5 College Football Programs on the Decline
A year ago, picking an SEC team on the decline was easy. It was reasonable to expect regression from Missouri (which as it turns out didn’t happen), Texas A&M and LSU, but following back-to-back nine-win seasons and returning the least experienced team in the league with a new head coach, it was obvious that Vanderbilt was due to stumble. Though the depths to which they fell were somewhat surprising.
This year, things are much murkier. It’s likely that Ole Miss will take a step back, but the Rebels still have a ton of talent on the roster. The same can be said for Georgia. South Carolina needs to right the ship after a disappointing 7-6 season and with just four starters returning on offense and a terrible defensive performance last year, that may be very difficult. Plus, Missouri has to fall soon, right?
However, even though some see them as a top 15 team, the program with the best chance to take a step back in 2015 and continue to decline over the next few years is Mississippi State.
Yes, following an unprecedented 9-0 start (including three straight wins over top ten teams), the first No. 1 ranking in school history and a 10-3 season, head coach Dan Mullen is back in Starkville to continue his building efforts.
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Mullen has done a terrific job of not only increasing the talent on the roster with an average national recruiting ranking of 26.8 since 2011, but also developing unheralded players into stars like quarterback Dak Prescott and recent draft picks Benardrick McKinney and Preston Smith. Overall, five Bulldogs were selected in the most recent NFL Draft, which is the most for a single season in school history.
But despite boasting one of the nation’s top 30 most talented rosters that same group ranks just 10th on average in the SEC over the last five classes – in the bottom one-third of the conference and neck-and-neck with Arkansas for worst in the SEC West. And while Mullen has a solid track record of elevating players above their recruiting rankings, it’s possible the 2014 group was special and won’t be replicated.
Entering 2015, Prescott is the biggest reason for optimism in Starkville. The Heisman Trophy-contending quarterback returns and he plays the most important position on the field, but with a total of nine starters returning from last year’s squad, Mississippi State is the least experienced team in the SEC.
Prescott can run (he had 986 rushing yards last season), but losing Josh Robinson’s 1,203 yards and 11 touchdowns will be difficult, especially behind an offensive line that must replace three starters. Only Florida has a less experienced O-Line entering the season among SEC foes. Plus, the more Prescott runs the more likely he will be injured and there is a significant drop off should he be sidelined.
De’Runnya Wilson led the Bulldogs with 47 receptions, 680 yards and nine touchdowns and at 6-foot-5 and more than 225 pounds, Wilson is one of the most physically imposing receivers in college football. However, he too must stay healthy and out of trouble. Fred Ross looked great in the Orange Bowl and had a solid season, but Prescott will miss the explosive Jameon Lewis and dependable tight end Malcolm Johnson.
On the other side of the football, the Bulldogs lost the quarterback of their defense in the middle linebacker McKinney as well as seven other starters, including Smith. There is talent – most notably defensive tackle Chris Jones and defensive back Will Redmond – but State doesn’t have nearly as deep a unit as they did in 2014. Plus, the Bulldogs had to replace defensive coordinator Geoff Collins, who left for Florida.
Mississippi State won’t have a collapse like Vanderbilt in 2014 or Florida in 2013. The Bulldogs will have a strong offense and will make plays on defense, but expect MSU to lose four or five regular season games next season, and probably more in 2016.
Next: The Next Boise State? 5 College Football Sleepers
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