MLB Rumors: Will Zack Greinke opt-out of contract at year’s end?

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Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke faces an interesting choice with a looming opt-out clause in his contract after the 2015 season.


When right-hander Zack Greinke signed a six-year, $147 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers prior to the 2013 season; it created somewhat of a ripple effect around baseball. Here was a pitcher, taking what was deemed as ace money to slot into the number two spot in the Dodgers rotation. How would that impact the cost of pitching moving forward for those arms that market deemed stronger than Greinke’s?

It certainly had a direct effect on teammate Clayton Kershaw’s extension with the Dodgers, a deal which netted the left-hander a seven-year, $215 million extension, the richest in the game. It also played a part in Justin Verlander’s deal which extended his existing contract to seven-years, $180 million. The list goes on; Felix Hernandez (five years, $135 million) and Max Scherzer (seven-years, $210 million) immediately come to mind.

However, perhaps we need to credit Zack Greinke and his agents at the Guggenheim Group for having a bit of foresight. Not only did they realize that they were setting the market. The group ensured that they would still be able to take advantage of that same growth it surpassed Greinke along the way.

Greinke’s contract was written with an opt-out clause after the third season, allowing the right-hander to terminate the final three years and $71 million of his existing deal with the Dodgers in order to hit the free agent market after the 2015 season. That’s right folks, you read that correctly’ Zack Greinke can choose to gamble away $71 million of guaranteed money in pursuit of a higher payday.

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And you know what, he could actually get it.

In his first year plus of play under the contract, the Dodgers have paid Greinke $46.03 million if you prorate his 2015 salary based on starts made (and an average of 32 per season). Meanwhile, FanGraphs indicates that the Dodgers have actually gotten $65.3 million worth of value out of Zack Greinke’s right arm through his first two-plus years in Los Angeles. In that time, Greinke is 37-12 with a 2.55 ERA, a 3.09 FIP, and an 8.3 K/9 ratio. He has finished in the top-10 of the Cy Young voting each of the past two seasons.

At 31-years-old, the opt-out represents the last chance the Zack Greinke will likely be able to secure a long-term deal on the open market. However, his decision will also be made based on those that are also available and keeping for the all-mighty dollar. Currently, Greinke profiles as the fourth best pitcher on the 2016 MLB free agent market, trailing David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmerman in that regard. Jeff Samardzija, Doug Fister, Mike Leake, and Scott Kazmir are also expected to draw heavy interest after the season is over.

With that said the best option for Greinke may be to take the C.C. Sabathia route. Sabathia faced a similar decision in 2011, when he had four-years and $92 million remaining on his deal with the New York Yankees. However, rather than opt-out of the deal, the Yankees worked out a one-year extension, valued at $25 million for the 2016 season, and a vesting option valued at an additional for the 2017 season.

While Sabathia’s track record since won’t do much to encourage the Dodgers to follow suit, it should be noted that Sabathia also had an additional year still on the deal, and had nearly two full seasons worth of innings on his pitching arm than Greinke does in the same situation. Greinke is also a much different person in terms of physical shape, something that has come back to haunt Sabathia as he gets into the latter stages of his career.

In the end, it turns into an interesting decision to make for Greinke. He’ll undoubtedly find some significant money out there on the open market, and he’ll certainly find more long-term security now than he will at 34-years-old when his contract expires. However, given his performance in Los Angeles and the market he’ll be competing in, Greinke’s best choice remains to extend with the Dodgers and finish his career at Chavez Ravine.

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