Elton Brand and what could have been…
By Ian Levy
Today, at a youth camp at his high school alma mater, Elton Brand announced his retirement from the NBA. Brand spent the past two seasons as a key reserve for the Atlanta Hawks, capping a respectable second act to his career as a solid big off the bench, willing to play defense, fight for the tough rebound and knock down the mid-range jump shot. This second act came after a ruptured Achilles tendon robbed him of nearly two full seasons in his prime. That injury, suffered near the beginning of the 2007-08 season with the Los Angeles Clippers, completely changed the trajectory of his career. To some degree, the player he became after working through that period obscures just how dominant he was before.
For six consecutive seasons at the beginning of last decade, Brand was among the most productive big men in the league. Using Box Plus-Minus, a box score derived estimate of a player’s net impact per 100 possessions, we can see the progression of his first few seasons in the league.
From ages 22 to 27, Brand’s BPM was +5.3 per 100 possessions. That’s a mark which reliably made Brand one of the 10-15 most productive players in the league. Comparing his trajectory to Blake Griffin, the Los Angeles Clippers current power forward, we can see that Brand compares favorably and may arguably have even been ahead of him through age 25.
That’s the quality of player Brand was pre-injury and the graph, unfortunately, also illustrates how much that ruptured tendon cost him. If Brand has been able to stay healthy, extending his prime and following a more normal and uninterrupted aging curve, it’s not crazy to think that we might be talking about him as a potential hall of famer. Injuries are an unavoidable part of basketball, but it’s worth remembering Elton Brand both for what he was and for what he could have been.