The Three-Headed WNBA MVP Race

(Ed: In our first season, The Nylon Calculus covered almost exclusively the NBA from a statistical standpoint. This is largely due to the fact that with the advent of SportVU technology, the NBA game has the most robust underlying data. However, that isn’t to say new and interesting observations from a statistical standpoint are not available from other basketball leagues such as the NCAA, FIBA play and especially the WNBA. We are thrilled to have Howard Megdal to provide regular coverage of that league and hope you enjoy.)

As the WNBA season enters its final four weeks, the question of just who will win the Most Valuable Player award depends largely on which areas of emphasis you value most.

The candidates still in consideration for me will come as no surprise to you: Elena Delle Donne of the Chicago Sky, Brittney Griner of the Phoenix Mercury and Maya Moore of the Minnesota Lynx.

What was once Delle Donne’s to lose remains so: the Sky guard/forward is posting offensive numbers rarely seen in league history. Her Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 33.46, if maintained, would be the third-best ever, trailing only Lauren Jackson’s 2006 and 2007 seasons. More astonishing, given the routine double- and triple-teams she’s faced all season, is that she’s ninth in the league in Effective Field Goal percentage (eFG%) at 50.8%, and has been fifth most efficient on two point shots at 52.9%. Even her three-point shot, which began the year well below her typical accuracy, has rebounded to 42% (21-for-50) over her past ten games, after shooting an uncharacteristic 18.5% (10-for-54) in her first 15. Factoring in her spectacular free throw shooting – 95.8%! – and Delle Donne is fourth in True Shooting Percentage (TS%) while among the WNBA leaders in usage.

It is largely offense driving her candidacy, but it is hardly the only reason she’s been so dominant this year. She’s fourth in the league in block percentage, tenth in defensive rebounding percentage (DREB%). And while her defensive rating is just 99, this is deceptive: for most of the season, Delle Donne was forced to serve several defensive functions at once, rim protector and perimeter closeout as well as defending her own assignment, all while averaging more than 34 minutes per game, second in the league. That’s relaxed somewhat with the addition of Erika de Souza in the middle, Tamera Young’s return from a thumb injury to protect the perimeter and Jessica Breland’s return to form.

Meanwhile, defense is central to the candidacy of Brittney Griner. Many counted her out of the race for MVP before the season even began, thanks to her suspension for the first seven games of the season[1. Following a widely-reported domestic violence incident with Glory Johnson.]. However, the level she’s played since returning absolutely should place her in the MVP discussion.

Through her first 17 games of the season, Griner’s PER is 27.1, second overall behind only Delle Donne. She’s gotten to that level of PER without being a volume shooter, no easy feat[2. PER tends to strongly reward usage as the breakeven efficiency is extremely low.]. While Delle Donne averages 16.6 shots per game, Griner checks in at just 10.5 per game. And yet, thanks to her remarkable efficiency—a league-best 55.6% from the floor, along with a solid 76.8% mark from the free throw line—there may not be a higher-percentage play in the league than finding Griner inside.[3. Why Phoenix doesn’t do this more is a subject for another article.]

Griner is far from one-dimensional, but the level at which she is defending is every bit as transcendent as Delle Donne’s offensive performance. She’s blocking shots in 10.7% of her opportunities, effectively tied with what 7’2″ Margo Zydek did in a very different WNBA back in 1998. She’s fifth in the league with a 24.9% DREB%. And she’s effectively changing the way opposing offenses can attack the Mercury while serving as the rim protector. Note that her defensive rating of 91, good for third overall in the league, comes without a teammate playing regular minutes with a DRating of lower than 95. The other four regular starters—DeWanna Bonner, Monique Currie, Candace Dupree and Leilani Mitchell—check in at DRatings of 97, 98, 99 and 100. So that fact that Phoenix is third in the WNBA in overall DRating is absolutely a Griner-specific stat.

All that is holding Griner’s candidacy back is the total minutes played, and that does matter when evaluating total value of a season. But she’s averaging 31 minutes per game, good for ninth in the league. And if she stays at that average over the final ten games, she’ll check in at 837 minutes, more than enough to qualify for the season leaderboards, and not far off from the 889 Candace Parker played when she won the MVP in 2013.

Meanwhile, Maya Moore essentially serves as a hybrid of the Delle Donne and Griner candidacies. Moore checks in at a PER of 26.8, third in the league, just behind Griner. Her defensive presence, while fundamentally different from Griner’s, is enormous as well, with a DRating of 92.2, good for fourth in the league. Despite standing just 6’0″, Moore manages to grab enough rebounds to rank seventh on a per-game basis, and can also be found among the top ten in assists and steals. Her team also has the best record in the WNBA, if that matters to you.[4. Worth noting that both Delle Donne and Griner lead playoff teams as well.]

But there are a pair of factors that weigh down Moore’s candidacy to me. One is that she’s doing so much, but her efficiency really lags behind Griner and Delle Donne. Her eFG% is just 49.1%, weighed down by her relative inefficiency from inside the arc.[2. Moore is shooting 45.1 % on twos, as compared to a very respectable 36.8% from three.]. Moreover, her usage rate is up to 30.7%, which trails only Angel McCoughtry of Atlanta. Moore, though, has many more options at her disposal than McCoughtry does with the Dream.

And while at first glance it would appear that Moore’s defensive numbers are equal to Griner’s, it is worth noting that she has quite a bit of help at that end of the floor compared to Griner. Moore’s DRating is terrific. It’s also not even best among the starting five of the Lynx, trailing Rebekkah Brunson, and just ahead of the recently-acquired Sylvia Fowles. The Lynx are just ahead of the Merury in overall defensive efficiency this season, but it is hard to credit as much of that defensive success to Moore as Griner deserves for how the Mercury defend.

Let’s be clear: none of what I’ve identified in any of these seasons are deficiencies. They only serve as inferior when one of the three star of stars in this league gets compared to one of the other two. Delle Donne, Griner and Moore are all having remarkable, two-way seasons.

As of right now, my ballot reads Delle Donne first, Griner second and Moore third. The primary way I see for Griner to make up ground will be if the Mercury make her more of an offensive focal point without Griner losing her huge edge in efficiency. She could, I suppose, get even better defensively, but this seems borderline impossible, given how she’s already playing. And Moore, who historically shoots far better than she has this season, could revert to career norms from two-point range and/or go on a three-point rampage, which would make up much of the PER gap she has compared to Delle Donne.

That said, it is entirely reasonable to order any of these three players differently on your ballot. And with a third of the season left, I see little reason to count out any of them.