Is Aaron Nola the next Jacob deGrom?

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Sounds like a stretch, doesn’t it?

Jacob deGrom‘s absolutely meteoric rise to pitching superstardom has propelled his stock up to a level just shy of the Clayton Kershaw‘s and Zack Greinke‘s of the baseball world. After a scorching 2nd half in 2014 (6-1, 2.16 ERA) that earned him the NL Rookie of the Year award, deGrom’s 2.40 ERA in 169 innings pitched to date has him ranked 6th in the majors and 4th in the NL, trailing only the Dodgers’ dynamic duo and the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta in the senior circuit. In only his second year in the majors, deGrom seems established, a legit ace – which is quite remarkable if you think about it.

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After all, it’s worth remembering that deGrom was never a particularly highly touted prospect. He was drafted by the Mets in the ninth round in 2010 and wasn’t on the fantasy radar of too many people, easily overshadowed by the likes of Jameson Taillon, Drew Pomeranz and teammate Matt Harvey, all first-rounders that year. But deGrom, as we know, put it all together. He developed his offspeed pitches, kept getting better and well, the rest is history.

After Aaron Nola‘s first major league start on July 21 of this year, we did a post on him which chronicled his great year in the minors and the promise he brings to fans of the Philadelphia Philles as they look to the future. Yet Nola, like deGrom before him, was not projected to be a top-of-the-rotation arm. Most view him as a future no. 3 starter with good control. Nonetheless hope was justified, but caution prudent, as we watched how Nola would react. After six weeks and exactly 10 starts, we now have some idea. And the news is good. Quite good in fact.

After last night’s impressive seven innings of shutout ball against the Atlanta Braves, Nola is now the owner of a 6-2 record with a 3.56 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 51 to 15 K:BB ratio in 60 2/3 IP. The Phillies, a team with a .388 winning percentage this year, have went 7-3 in his 10 starts. About those three losses – the first was a 1-0 loss to the Rays in his first major league start, the second was against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre, and the third was in Citi Field against Harvey and the Mets.

Yes, quite good.

Nola hasn’t yet dominated the way deGrom can however. While deGrom put up 144 K’s in 140 1/3 IP last year in his rookie season, Nola has yet to record a game with eight or more strikeouts (deGrom finished last year with three such games consecutively). So the high strikeout totals haven’t come yet, and they may never will. But Nola, continuing along the same trajectory he has all along in the minors, just keeps doing well, keeps doing better than he’s “supposed” to do. Sound familiar?

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Even if Aaron Nola doesn’t become a top-5 pitcher in the National League, he is looking more and more like the next prospect to pleasantly surprise and shows every sign of developing into a very nice arm for the Phils and fantasy owners alike. Jacob deGrom just happened to be the last pitcher to do that, and with fantastic results.

So while Nola could fall somewhat short of the bar deGrom has set for sleeper pitchers who blossom into bonafide stars, his composure, low walk rate and strong early results make him a low-risk, high-reward player. One who could very well pay off big.

Don’t wait on him too long in drafts next year. I wouldn’t take him before Jordan Zimmermann or Lance Lynn, but I’d personally take him right around the time guys like Gio Gonzalez and James Shields start going off the board, as he’s already putting up comparable numbers and simply offers more upside than those two, who will both be north of 30 years old.