Philadelphia Phillies Vincent Velasquez: Breakout Candidate in 2016?

The Phillies are in the midst of a prolonged rebuild and they further cemented that by shipping Ken Giles to the Houston Astros this week. While Giles is unquestionably an electric pitcher, the return the Phillies got was one that should help them more in the grand scheme of things.

In return the Phillies got five players back in return, but the return really centered on getting Vincent Velasquez. Velasquez entered 2015 as one of the best pitching prospects in the league and if it were not for some preexisting injuries, he would have been even higher on prospects lists.

Velasquez has had success throughout the minors posting an ERA of 3.28 across all his stops and striking out 354 for his career along the way. His arsenal is highlighted by a mid-90s fastball and solid changeup which already has Velasquez looking like a quality rotation arm. The next step in him reaching his potential ceiling though will be if he can keep developing a third pitch.

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He started to highlight more of a slider more when he was coming out of the bullpen during his second stint with the Astros after his initial time filling in for the rotation earlier in the season. So through the spring it will be interesting to see if that will become one of his put away pitches because it would play well off the arsenal he already has.

From a fantasy perspective, the Phillies have actually got some pretty interesting pitching options now compared to the monstrosity of a rotation they threw out there in 2015. With Aaron Nola, Vincent Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff now in tow, they all serve as attractive selections next season.

Last season, Velasquez was able to post a 4.37 ERA/1.28 WHIP over seven starts and numerous relief experiences down the stretch. All in all it comes to a total of 55 innings and serves as a good sample size for what to expect from him next season.  He did have a 3.46 FIP which is encouraging and his 9.4 SO/9 was a solid ratio.

Those K numbers are tad bit inflated thanks to his relief outings, but there is no reason why Velasquez should not settle right in the seven to eight K per game range. One thing to watch though will be his walk numbers, in the minors he averaged about three a game and in the majors it was just about the same, clearly something that he will have to limit in order to succeed in Philly.

The move form Houston to Philadelphia is a lateral move ballpark wise as both stadiums are launching pads, but Velasquez only surrendered five homers during his big league stints this season. I do not expect him to be a fantasy SP 1-3 next season, but he should be on everyone’s radar to fill out the backend of their rotation as he has the upside to really out perform where he will be drafted.

Next: Jason Heyward: Cubbie Bound in 2016

Also add the fact that in some leagues he will have RP eligibility and it even further increases his value as he would be offer a weekly advantage for those who want to enlist a six man rotation. He should make the next leap in development this season, and I think will have a breakout season where we look at him as one of the budding young pitchers in the league for years to come. He is well worth a flier late in drafts in 2016, so keep him in mind and watch him this spring.

2016 Early Projections: 10 W/3.80 ERA/1.22 WHIP/165 K