Milwaukee Brewers Chris Carter: Here We Go Again

Hell hath no fury like a fantasy owner scorned.

If you have been playing any fantasy sport long enough there will be plenty of players that you were absolutely enamored with at the draft and just had to roster, only for that player to completely be a bust after all was said and done. For many owners and me included, I wanted all the Chris Carter stock I could get my hands on heading into 2015, unfortunately he flopped big time.

After the Astros decided not to bring him back this offseason, he found a home Wednesday night with the Milwaukee Brewers. Now from a pure baseball sense, the move makes a ton of sense as the Brewers needed a proven, even if flawed, option to man first base.

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He still has the aura of a power threat at the plate, so the Brewers are hoping that he can solidify the lineup behind Ryan Braun and company. The signing is a pure low risk-high reward type of deal. Plus it is only a one year commitment, laden with incentives, so if there were ever a year for carter to reestablish his value, now is the time.

Now I have learned that even while you would swear to never own a player again for however long they keep playing, I am looking at you Carlos Gomez, there eventually comes a time at every draft where a player’s value cannot be ignored any further. This brings me to why Carter may actually be a sneaky value pick in 2016.

Most owners are going to be running in the other direction from Carter at drafts in the spring, but with power at a premium in baseball, doesn’t Carter deserve a look at least? He will forever be an AVG killer, but that does not stop anyone from continually drafting Billy Hamilton, who in essence, is the same type of fantasy contributor.

A lot of fantasy leagues are drifting away from using AVG as a fantasy category. So if you are in leagues that may value slugging percentage or on-base ability, Carter’s value rises further, under the assumption that he can once again get over the 30 homer mark. His OPS was .734 last season, slotting him just above Martin Prado, clearly a lot lower than it should be.

When he broke out in 2014 his OPS was .799, which is in the range that offers enough value to offset his other short comings. The move from Minute Maid to Miller Park, may actually serve as a small boost. Miller Park ranked first in baseball last season giving up 1.43 HR per game last season.

While Minute Maid and its short porch are inviting for righties, Carter actually lost about a handful of homers at Minute Maid thanks to extended left center portion of the stadium. While Carter is a true pull hitter, his power ranges to all fields. Out of his 24 HR in 2015, seven went to either right field or center, so with Miller Park’s longest dimension being 400 ft. to dead center, his power should not be hindered any.

If we dig further into his batted ball data, his ability to hit the ball and hit it with authority is still there. The top HR hitters in baseball have an average SPD, or speed of the bat on home runs, rating above 100 mph. Carter’s was 104.91 last season, which was a 2 mph uptick from 2014. His average distance ranks amongst the best as well, coming in at 405.06 ft. per homer.

This all lays the groundwork that just because his power dipped in 2015, it is not necessary an indication that his power is diminishing. With him being a pull hitter, his BABIP can sometimes be misleading thanks to the shift. But, his .244 BABIP in 2015, was the lowest it has been since his rookie season.

The Astros just ran out of patience with Carter last season and opted to basically make him a bench player for the second half of the season. The most frustrating part about owning Carter is the streakiness, which you know you are going to encounter, but last season it was impossible to tell when he was going to go on a hot streak.

He had a terrible April (.160 AVG/2 HR), followed by his best month of his season in May (.215/6 HR/21 RBI), but after that he basically disappeared for the rest of the season. After having 12 homers by the end of May, he only had 10 over the next three months. One positive is that he had a great close to season posting a, .333/6 HR/12 RBI line,  over only 17 games played, but by then he was released from nearly every fantasy roster.

Now we all know that Carter swings at everything, you could probably throw the rosin bag up there and he would offer at, so the strikeouts are not going away. He did have 70 walks in 2013, but matched that with 212 K, in 2014 he had 56 walks with 182 K and last season, in about 20 fewer games compared to 2013-2014, he had 57 walks and 151 K.

The fact being,  Carter is not changing anytime soon. I wish he would, because I see no reason that he cannot produce at a power rate like Chris Davis, but he seems to not be able to lay off the off-speed stuff. Owners have to remember the AVG or OBP hit that you are going to take each week, but it just depends on how much you can stomach that with the potential upside.

The Brewers lineup should be vastly improved next season as well with a healthy Jonathan Lucroy, mainstay Ryan Braun, and emerging studs Khris Davis and Domingo Santana. If Carter can slot somewhere in the cleanup or five hole of the lineup, the RBI and counting stat potential for him could be enormous.

The entire situation is perfect for him to thrive, but once again it will all come down to Carter making the adjustment at the plate to become a little more patience and just keep crushing pitching mistakes. It will be hard for me to look past just how hard I got burned by him last season, but it looks as though he found a home with a team that offers him a great chance at fantasy retribution. It is up to you to decide whether or not to give him one more shot.

2016 Early Projections: .225/35 HR/90 RBI/.800 OPS/60 R