The Race For Russ: Westbrook Trade Suitors

It happened; Kevin Durant is gone. KD is out in OKC, and the Thunder are left with only one of their former dynamic duo. While the story is heart-breaking for the franchise and for the fans in OKC, the Thunder have to get down to business. Thunder GM Sam Presti now has some decisions to make. Does he hold onto Russell Westbrook, praying that the 5-time All-Star re-signs with club? Or does he try to cut his losses and trade Westbrook for younger pieces in somewhat of a rebuilding theme? Only a few times in recent memory (Kevin Love, Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony) has a star of Westbrook’s magnitude been traded on an expiring contract.

If the Thunder did decide to trade Russell Westbrook, they would need to find a partner with a number of requirements. Westbrook’s trade suitor would likely need an abundance of young players. It is unlikely that Oklahoma City would want to trade for an aging piece, especially given that the majority of their roster is quite young. A trade partner would also need to offer up guard and wing players, not bigs. The Thunder are pretty set on big men with Enes Kanter, Steven Adams and the addition of Ersan Ilyasova and Domantas Sabonis in the Serge Ibaka trade. Finally, the suitor would need to be able to find a way to take on Westbrook’s contract for the coming season, a cap hit of just-under $17.8 million.

To find teams that fit this bill, I took my Free Agency Targets dataset did some data filtering. First, the model filtered to find players that are currently under contract, so no trading free agents that haven’t signed or draft picks that haven’t signed. Next, the model filters for players younger than Westbrook (26 or under). Finally, the model removes teams that don’t have enough attractive pieces to make a deal. If a team cannot come close (within 2 WS) to matching Westbrook’s 10.9 Win Shares above his position average with any amount of players, they are removed from the list of available suitors.

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Is this exactly how things would go down in a trade? Probably not. Teams could trade rights to draft picks before signing them. Teams could trade older, veteran pieces if they thought those pieces would fit in OKC. Teams could also try to do sign and trades, as well, if it fit the bill. However, for simplicity’s sake, we’re going to stick with stipulations stated above. Below is a chart depicting each of the possible trade partners for Oklahoma City and the trade’s effect on OKC’s roster. To toggle the trades, simply check OKC and whichever trade partner you would like to view.

Taking all of the previously stated necessities into account, 8 teams seem to have a pretty solid chance at landing Russell Westbrook if the Thunder decide to trade him. However, this exercise isn’t only about finding suitors for Westbrook, but also about trying to determine a “fair” trade for him. In order to do that, each of the possible trades are broken down below, showing the Estimated WS Above Position Average that OKC will receive from each team in exchange for ONLY Westbrook. Additionally, each will show a prediction for OKC’s record for the coming season if the specific trade is made. Finally, some of these trades may be less realistic than others, so a “Likelihood” indicator is presented with each trade, with 5 “Thunderbolts” meaning the trade is all-but-certain, and 0 “Thunderbolts” meaning the trade has no chance. While some of these trades are more likely than others, all exhibit a nearly “fair” trade for Westbrook in terms of WS above a player’s positional average.

Boston Celtics
Send: Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder, 2017 Brooklyn Pick
Total Estimated WS Above Average: 10.7, 0.2 less than Westbrook
OKC Projected 2015-16 Record: 48-34
Likelihood: ⚡⚡⚡⚡

The Celtics might be the best suitor for Westbrook. They have long been searching for a star to elevate the team from good to Cavs-Challenging in the East. This move would definitely close that gap. While they lose valuable depth on the wings, they gain one of the biggest stars in the league. What do they do with Isaiah Thomas? They could swap him into this deal if they wanted (not likely), or try to find a way for Westbrook to play alongside Isaiah (see: Reggie Jackson, 2013-14). Additionally, Boston may not be willing to give up Crowder; they may try to slip Jonas Jerebko in that trade instead of Crowder. On the Thunder’s side, this gives them a few quality wings to complement their big men. Additionally, they have an opportunity to find that young star in a 2017 draft littered with talent using the 1st Round pick from Brooklyn.

Chicago Bulls
Send: Jimmy Butler, Future 1st Round Pick
Total Estimated WS Above Average: 9.7, 1.2 WS less than Westbrook
OKC Projected 2015-16 Record: 49-33
Likelihood: ⚡⚡⚡

Jimmy Butler has been tossed around in more than a few trade rumors recently. Add this trade to that list. While Jimmy isn’t going to replace all of the star power lost from Westbrook, he certainly won’t hurt. This might be the best quick fix for OKC, as they get a star and a pick from a Chicago team that likely won’t contend for an Eastern Conference title in the near future. On Chicago’s side, they would have to find somewhere to send the newly-signed Rajon Rondo, a possibility that includes adding him into this trade. If it meant getting Westbrook, though, the Bulls might just find a place for Rondo in a hurry.

Denver Nuggets
Send: Will Barton, Gary Harris, Kenneth Faried, Future 1st Round Pick, Future 2nd Round Pick
Total Estimated WS Above Average: 9.9, 1.0 WS less than Westbrook
OKC Projected 2015-16 Record: 47-35
Likelihood: ⚡⚡

Denver has started to build an impressive young team. Would they be willing to sacrifice some of that young talent to land Russ? It would take quite a bit. Losing Harris, Barton, and Faried guts a lot of Denver’s wing/stretch 4 depth. This is especially problematic, as Denver is trying to rebuild around new young guards in Emmanuel Mudiay and Jamal Murray. One of them may need to be thrown into this deal in exchange for one of the wings to make it work. For OKC, they get the wings they need and a couple of picks in order to build.

Los Angeles Clippers
Send: Blake Griffin, Future 2nd Round Pick
Total Estimated WS Above Average: 10.6, 0.3 WS less than Westbrook
OKC Projected 2015-16 Record: 47-35
Likelihood: ⚡⚡

Now that the Clippers couldn’t land Kevin Durant, do they go after Westbrook? Doubtful, as they still have Chris Paul. Maybe this is a three team deal with CP3 heading to Cleveland? It would be a complicated situation to say the least. Blake was hurt this past season, causing his WS to drop, but he averaged 10.6 WS in the three seasons before 2015-16. Using that number the approximate value of Westbrook is about Blake Griffin and a 2nd. This deal would also bring Griffin back home to OKC, something the fan-base may appreciate after KD left town.

Milwaukee Bucks
Send: Khris Middleton, Jabari Parker, 2 Future 1st Round Picks
Total Estimated WS Above Average: 9.7, 1.2 WS less than Westbrook
OKC Projected 2015-16 Record: 45-37
Likelihood: ⚡

The Bucks are at an impasse in their PG position. Do they have Giannis Antetokounmpo handle the ball, wreaking havoc as the Octopus of Doom? Do they stick with Michael Carter-Williams, hoping he can develop a jumper? Here’s a fix, just pick up Russ. They’d be giving up two parts of their Big 3 in order to add another. If Westbrook was destined to take MCW’s spot, MCW may end up in this trade, too. OKC would get a great wing in Middleton, a developing Parker to alternate at the 3 and 4, and a couple of quality future 1sts.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Send: Ricky Rubio, Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammad, 2 Future 1st Round Picks
Total Estimated WS Above Average: 9.4, 1.5 WS less than Westbrook
OKC Projected 2015-16 Record: 46-36
Likelihood: ⚡⚡

How fun would this be? Westbrook in Minnesota to play with Wiggins and KAT? That turns into a team that would give the rest of the West nightmares for years to come. Sign me up for tickets in Minneapolis. OKC would also end up well-off, getting an above-average PG in Rubio, a growing Zach LaVine, and a solid rotation player in Muhammad. Those future 1sts may not be worth as much with Westbrook in Minnesota, but they would still be worth some value in the near future.

Utah Jazz
Send: Gordon Hayward, Future 1st Round Pick
Total Estimated WS Above Average: 9.3, 1.6 WS less than Westbrook
OKC Projected 2015-16 Record: 48-34
Likelihood: ⚡

Gordon Hayward has been the star in Utah for the last few years. Would the Jazz give him up if they came across Westbrook? It is exactly what OKC needs in a quality wing and a pick. The Jazz? Not as much. They just acquired George Hill to be their new PG, meaning a trade for Westbrook would cause quite the logjam at the position. Perhaps packaging a pick with Hill and Rodney Hood, another talented youngster in Utah, would be more to Utah’s liking.

Washington Wizards
Send: John Wall, Otto Porter, 2 Future First Round Picks
Total Estimated WS Above Average: 9.3, 1.6 WS less than Westbrook
OKC Projected 2015-16 Record: 48-34
Likelihood: ⚡⚡

Recently signed Bradley Beal may be locked up in Washington for years to come, but other members of his starting 5 are certainly available. OKC would again get a proven point guard, a young, dependable wing, and picks, all very valuable for a team that is starting somewhat of a rebuild. Westbrook would team with Bradley Beal and newly signed Ian Mahinmi to create a formidable trio in the East.

BONUS: Los Angeles Lakers
Send: D’Angelo Russell, Julius Randle, Brandon Ingram, Future 2nd Round Pick
Total Estimated WS Above Average: -2.4, 13.3 WS less than Westbrook
OKC Projected 2015-16 Record: 36-46
Likelihood: ⚡⚡⚡⚡

You thought we missed this one, didn’t you? Nope, this one has to be included. Though the Lakers don’t exactly fit the bill mathematically like the rest of these teams, their young prospects haven’t had much time to develop. By putting D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle on a team with young, but some proven, players in OKC, they would really get a chance to improve their skills. The Lakers would finally have their star. Westbrook would take the mantle of “Next Great Laker”, while OKC could really set in on a rebuilding path with some potentially budding stars.

At the end of the day, the Celtics, Lakers, and maybe the Bulls will probably pick up the phone and suggest a deal like the one listed above. After those teams, it’s a mystery as to who might make a run at Westbrook. One thing we do know, however, is that Westbrook might not be around in OKC forever. It’s up to Presti to decide whether he thinks he can re-sign his star or start the race for Russ.

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