50 Shades of Fantasy Football, Vol. VI: No place like home

Sep 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) looks to pass in the third quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) looks to pass in the third quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) looks to pass under pressure from Denver Broncos defensive end Jared Crick (93) in the second quarter at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) looks to pass under pressure from Denver Broncos defensive end Jared Crick (93) in the second quarter at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /
  1.  Andrew Luck finished with just 11 fantasy points in Week Two. His 21 of 40, 197 yards, one touchdown, one interception stat line was a huge disappointment even in a difficult road matchup.
  2. In Week 1 at home, Luck was 31 of 47 for 385 yards and four touchdowns. He was the top fantasy football quarterback with 43 fantasy points.
  3. During the 2014 season, Indianapolis also lost the first two games of the regular season. In the third game (also at home), Luck was 31 of 39 for 370 yards and four touchdowns in a 27 point Colts win. The Colts went 11-3 after those first two losses and reached the AFC Championship game.
  4. In his last 13 home games, Luck is averaging 297.4 yards, 2.54 touchdowns, 0.91 interceptions and 28.4 standard fantasy points per game.
  5. Colts lead running back Frank Gore had 63 total yards and a touchdown on the road against a stout Denver run defense.
  6. In their last road game at Kansas City, the Chargers allowed 6.4 yards per carry and two touchdowns to Chiefs running back Spencer Ware.
  7. The Colts defense is currently ravaged by injuries. Already missing three cornerbacks, the Colts lost Darius Butler and Rashaan Melvin in Sunday’s loss at Denver. As if that wasn’t enough,  cornerback Antonio Cromartie played the game with a shoulder injury.
  8. In 2013, T.Y. Hilton played nine games in a dome stadium, and seven games in an outside stadium. In the seven outside games he caught 28 passes for 242 yards and no touchdowns. In the nine dome games, however, he caught 54 passes for 841 yards and five touchdowns.
  9. In 2014, the pattern repeated, with over 64 percent of Hilton’s catches and over 63 percent of his receiving yards coming from games played in a dome stadium. On Sunday, Hilton will again be playing, of course, in a dome stadium.
  10. San Diego currently ranks 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (324.5 ypg). This includes their last road game in Week 1 at Kansas City, where Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith threw for 363 yards and scored 31 fantasy points. Indianapolis is currently 24th in passing yards allowed per game (299).
  11. The Indianapolis-San Diego game has the highest over/under (53) of any Sunday NFL game this week.

Prediction:  The 0-2 Colts get their first win of the season in a big double-digit victory over San Diego. In the highest scoring game on Sunday, Luck finishes as a top-three fantasy quarterback and Hilton finishes as a WR1 for the first time this season. In addition, 33 year old Frank Gore finishes at a top 20 fantasy running back with 100 total yards and a touchdown.