College Basketball Bracketology 2017: Week 13
Last week was dominated by top teams dropping games. This week the conversation moves to, perhaps, the top line of the tournament rounding into form. Back-to-back weeks, Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas and Baylor are my No. 1 seeds. And while the second line looks feisty, I’m not so sure these teams will get muscled off their pedestal any time soon.
The biggest game of the young season was Saturday’s Kansas at Kentucky game. The Wildcats turned the ball over on 20.8 percent of its possessions in the 79-73 loss, and the Jayhawks kept Malik Monk to benign offensive numbers. Kentucky is 2-3 against top competition this season, and with only Florida remaining on the schedule as a bonafide tournament team, it’s unlikely the Wildcats have the ability to climb back into the mix for a No. 1 seed.
The opposite is true for Kansas, which has beaten seven teams in the RPI Top 50, including No. 1 seed Baylor on Wednesday. The common thread for my top four teams is they have beaten everyone they were supposed to beat, and with the exception of undefeated Gonzaga, their losses are respectable.
Last Four In
TCU, Michigan State, Miami (FL), Clemson
First Four Out
Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Syracuse
Jamie Dixon and the Horned Frogs are a feel good story everybody can get behind. After years in the Big 12 basement, TCU has three quality wins, including beating Kansas State on the road on Wednesday, 86-80. TCU went 10-of-17 from behind the arc against the Wildcats, and an 11-point, 10-rebound, 4-steal performance from Kenrich Williams was representative of the 3-and-D wings’ two-way game.
Michigan State’s resume is flawed, but the 13-9 Spartans took care of business against Michigan, 70-62, and have been rewarded with its rivals’ spot — for now. Losses against Arizona, Kentucky and Baylor in the non-conference offer neutral returns. Michigan State is up to 5-4 in the Big Ten, and with Minnesota free-falling — losers of five straight — Sparty has earned the benefit of the doubt until somebody else in the conference claims their space.
I have nine teams from the ACC in my bracket, including Georgia Tech now firmly in the field after defeating Notre Dame on Saturday. Of the conference’s bubble teams, Clemson and Miami still have the best resumes, but look out for Syracuse.
The Orange are 14-9 (6-4) after winning on the road for the first time all season, in a bizarre 100-93 OT victory at NC State. The Wolfpack are now 3-7 in the ACC, and dropping a home game to Syracuse is likely their cue to prep for the NIT. Syracuse beat Wake Forest and Pittsburgh, and the defeat of No. 6 Florida State in January was inspired. John Gillon won’t come close to scoring 43 points again this season, but when Syracuse is making every other 3-pointer and causing mayhem in the transition game, it closely resembles a tournament team.
Onto the bracket…
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s/North Carolina Central
(2) Louisville vs. (15) Bucknell
(3) Virginia vs. (14) Princeton
(4) Butler vs. (13) New Mexico State
(5) Purdue vs. (12) Illinois State
(6) Florida vs. (11) UNC Wilmington
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Arkansas
(8) Kansas State vs. (9) Georgia Tech
Villanova defeating Virginia was critical for its claim at the top overall seed, but win or lose, I love this team in a tournament setting. In a game where shots weren’t falling as easy as they’re used to, the Wildcats still found a way to win with the ability of Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson to the get the foul line.
Louisville has jumped a line as Kentucky has fallen to a No. 3 seed — something that Cardinals fans must love to see. The second-best defense in the country according to KenPom, Louisville’s four big wins — Baylor, Virginia, Notre Dame, Florida State — are as good as any team’s in the country. Placing Virginia as the No. 3 seed in the same bracket as its two toughest losses is not intentionally mean-spirited; it’s hopeful that we’ll get a great Sweet 16/Elite 8.
Butler gets punished for losing to Creighton minus-Maurice Watson Jr. and falls to a No. 4 seed. The Butler-Purdue-Florida-Xavier group feels amorphic, as I’m not sure these teams aren’t interchangeable, but it makes for a nice combination of matchups. The Musketeers beating Seton Hall on Wednesday was a nice way to usher out January — featuring four losses, all against tournament teams — and start February on a good note.
West Region
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) New Orleans/UC Irvine
(2) Florida State vs. (15) North Dakota State
(3) West Virginia vs. (14) Georgia Southern
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Vermont
(5) Notre Dame vs. (12) Nevada
(6) Maryland vs. (11) Middle Tennessee State
(7) Virginia Tech vs. (10) Indiana
(8) Iowa State vs. (9) USC
If Gonzaga (22-0) remains undefeated, they’re getting a No. 1 seed, but this bracket is full of teams that would bother the Bulldogs. Florida State, West Virginia and Wisconsin all have the defensive infrastructure to restrict 7-1 Przemek Karnowski. A potential Gonzaga/Notre Dame matchup in the Sweet 16 would be an ideal mid-bracket, March Madness matchup.
This bracket has several teams (Virginia Tech, Iowa State, USC, Middle Tennessee State) who could clamor for a higher seed before all is said and done. Buzz Williams’ team isn’t great at anything, and getting rolled by Virginia on Wednesday would be easier to pardon if Virginia Tech had better wins than Duke and Clemson. The Hokies and Cyclones have oddly similar resumes, with both teams sitting at 5-4 in reputable conferences with only two wins each against the RPI Top 50.
USC is going to cling to its win over UCLA on Jan. 25 and hope not to drop any regrettable games in the Pac-12.
Middle Tennessee is 18-3 with a 71-48 beatdown over Vanderbilt to its name, but the Blue Raiders lost to VCU in its only other noteworthy game. Wins on the road against Ole Miss and Belmont are ho-hum. If they win out the rest of the Conference USA season, Middle Tennessee could grab a No. 10 seed. (Wouldn’t it be funny if the Blue Raiders draw Michigan State as a No. 7 seed and open the tournament for the second year in a row against Tom Izzo?)
Midwest Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Weber State
(2) North Carolina vs. (15) East Tennessee State
(3) Oregon vs. (14) Florida Gulf Coast
(4) Cincinnati vs. (13) Monmouth
(5) Creighton vs. (12) Clemson/Miami (FL)
(6) Saint Mary’s vs. (11) TCU/Michigan State
(7) Northwestern vs. (10) VCU
(8) SMU vs. (9) Dayton
On first glance, this bracket streamlines Kansas and North Carolina, a pair of blue bloods, to the Elite 8. But Oregon and Cincinnati have earned those spots. The Ducks are 18-3 with wins over UCLA and USC, and the Bearcats are 19-2 with wins against Iowa State, SMU and Xavier. Both teams have Top 10 defenses per KenPom, and should offer resistance in potential tournament games against Kansas and North Carolina, two Top 10 offenses.
Creighton earned another week with a relatively high seed by beating Butler, but concerns loom about the ceiling for this team without Watson at point guard. Per sports reference, the Bluejays had an effective field goal percentage of 68.3 against the Bulldogs, usually an adequate defense. Butler somehow only shot 40.9 percent from the field in a game where it pulled down 30.6 percent of available offensive rebounds. Color me skeptical, but if Butler and Creighton (minus Watson) played 10 times, I think Tuesday was just about the best-case scenario for the Bluejays.
Saint Mary’s remains a two-loss team, but its dearth of quality wins (Nevada and Dayton) is beginning to jump out at me. The team is an advanced metrics darling, but the Gaels’ main trick is playing at the 351st slowest pace in the country, per KenPom — limiting the number of possessions to such a vast degree that opponents don’t have enough shots to catch up. The Gaels are eighth in the country in field goal percentage (50.3 percent) and hold their opponents to 52.1 shots per game, 24th in the country.
It’s a formula for choke-holding weaker teams, but I’m not sure it would hold up against tournament competition. Gonzaga scored 133.9 points per 100 possessions, per sports reference, by making 33 of its 51 shots against Saint Mary’s.
I put VCU firmly in the field and left Dayton as a No. 9 seed out of pure respect for the A-10. Man, oh, man, it’s tough to think about the likelihood of just one team making it in from that conference. How different this would be if Dayton had defeated Saint Mary’s in November or Northwestern in December. The Flyers have single-digit wins over Vanderbilt and Rhode Island — two teams that aren’t close to my field of 68.
VCU lost by eight to Baylor on a neutral site in November; make that a win, and VCU might never fall beneath a No. 9 seed all year. The Rams did well to beat Middle Tennessee in December.
South Region
(1) Baylor vs. (16) Texas Southern
(2) Arizona vs. (15) Belmont
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Winthrop
(4) UCLA vs. (13) Valparaiso
(5) South Carolina vs. (12) Akron
(6) Duke vs. (11) Wichita State
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Marquette
(8) California vs. (9) Seton Hall
South Carolina vs. UCLA for a Sweet 16 matchup against Baylor might be my favorite triad in this entire bracket. The fact that it funnels into an Elite 8 matchup against Arizona or Kentucky — barring a run of upsets by Duke, Xavier or Wichita State(?!!) — makes it my favorite region.
We should all be pulling for UCLA/South Carolina to get slotted in the same region, a matchup of the No. 1 offense and defense, respectively, in KenPom’s efficiency system. A tough ending to January coupled with the decline by Kentucky — the Bruins’ best win by a mile — has dropped UCLA out of the mix for one of the top two lines. While the Gamecocks lack a win of the magnitude of beating Kentucky — On Jan. 21, the Wildcats actually gave them the most pronounced whooping of their season — they have a 10-4 record against the RPI Top 150.
This has been a great year, so far, for those with a vested interest in seeing Duke fans grimace.
But Duke has won three out of four, including back-to-back road wins against Wake Forest and Notre Dame. The Blue Devils are ranked 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 13th overall, per KenPom. Harry Giles hasn’t come on yet, but Duke had four players score 16 or more against the Irish, and Amile Jefferson wasn’t even one of them. This team can score. Duke vs. Kentucky in the second round would not fail to entertain.
Wichita State has won five straight and 11 of 12 games. Its only losses on the season are to Louisville, Michigan State, Oklahoma State and Illinois State — three teams in my field and another just outside of it. A balanced team in the top 30 of both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom, the Shockers could do damage in the tournament — again. With the Redbirds currently leading the Missouri Valley Conference, however, we’ll have to see if the tournament committee makes room for both Illinois State and Wichita State.