College Basketball Bracketology 2016: Week 12
The Bracketology roundup for Week 12 of the 2016-17 college basketball season
When highly-touted basketball teams are falling seemingly every night, it can only mean one thing — March Madness must be right around the corner. That’s right, boys and girls, it’s time for some Bracketology.
Villanova was unseated by Marquette on Tuesday after two weeks atop the AP poll. On the same night, No. 18 West Virginia crushed No. 2 Kansas, and No. 4 Kentucky lost on the road against Tennessee. It was the first time since 1979 three of the top four teams were dropped in a single night.
The clear benefactor would have been Florida State, leading the ACC with 18 overall wins, but on Wednesday, Georgia Tech brutalized the Seminoles, 78-56, in a game that wasn’t even that close. Also on Wednesday, No. 8 UCLA lost to USC, and No. 16 Creighton lost its second straight game since losing point guard Maurice Watson Jr. to a torn ACL.
It’s early — boy, is it early — but let’s take a look at where everything stands by projecting who’s in and who’s out on the NCAA tournament bubble.
Last Four In:
Michigan, VCU, Clemson, Texas Tech
First Four Out:
Michigan State, Miami (FL), Pittsburgh, Georgia
Sunday’s Michigan-Michigan State rivalry game could very well swap these two teams. The Wolverines (13-7, 3-4) should not be comfortable, but a tough slate of games early is still working to their favor. Michigan has lost by three to Virginia Tech and four to Wisconsin, two clear tournament teams, while also losing on the road against South Carolina and UCLA.
The Spartans (12-9, 4-4) have lost three straight since soundly defeating Minnesota — a win that is looking worse, unfortunately, as the Gophers have lost four straight heading into this weekend’s game against Maryland. Making 19 straight tournaments is in jeopardy for Tom Izzo and Michigan State.
I’m putting VCU (15-5, 5-2) in the field, for now, giving the Atlantic 10 conference a second team in the hunt. Losing to Fordham on Jan. 18 was painful, but competitive non-conference losses with Baylor and Georgia Tech matter more. Middle Tennessee was a nice win.
Clemson/Texas Tech would be an interesting play-in game. The Tigers (11-8, 1-6) have been atrocious in the ACC, but they can cling to their in-state victory at South Carolina on Dec. 21, and point to single-digit losses against Xavier, North Carolina, Notre Dame and Virginia. The Red Raiders (14-6, 3-5) have three impressive wins over West Virginia, Kansas State and TCU, and took Baylor within four points on the road on Wednesday.
I picked nine teams from the ACC, and left Pittsburgh and Miami (FL) on the cutting room floor. NC State and Syracuse have not been eliminated from the tournament field either. Fans of those teams will cry over my Clemson pick, but none of those teams have a better win than South Carolina on the road.
Onto the bracket…
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s/North Carolina Central
(2) Florida State vs. (15) Bucknell
(3) Louisville vs. (14) Princeton
(4) Creighton vs. (13) New Mexico State
(5) Notre Dame vs. (12) Illinois State
(6) Florida vs. (11) UNC Wilmington
(7) Minnesota vs. (10) Miami (FL)
(8) Kansas State vs. (9) Arkansas
Despite the loss this week, Villanova (19-2, 7-2) has the best resume of any team in the country. The Wildcats have lost twice by single digits to teams in the tournament field. Sunday will be a fine test for the defending champions against Virginia, but win or lose, the tournament committee knows what this team is.
The Wildcats take and make a lot of 3s, and are elite on 2s and from the line. In this potential region are Florida State (18-3, 6-2) and Louisville (17-4, 5-3) — the latter being arguably the most intimidating defense in the country, and the former being a venerable-yet-formidable, similarly balanced contender. My money would be on Louisville making the Elite 8 were it to come down to a matchup against Florida State; I’m also more confident in Louisville’s potential to climb the ACC standings before March than the Seminoles ability to maintain their lead.
As mentioned above, Creighton could very well be done as a high-seed contender without the services of Watson, who was dishing 15.3 assists per 100 possessions with a +8.3 net rating, per sports reference. Freshman point guard Davion Mintz was not the reason Creighton surrendered 102 points to Marquette in his first effort as starter, but the Bluejays are 0-2 without Watson after a loss to Georgetown.
A buffer game against DePaul on Saturday is all that stands between hitting the road against Butler on Tuesday. Whether or not Mintz is ready to absorb the majority of Watson’s production — or if the rest of the 19th-ranked offense, per KenPom, can evolve on the fly — will determine how far Creighton falls in the tournament field. In this region alone, Notre Dame (17-4, 6-2) and Florida (15-5, 6-2) could elevate themselves into the conversation for a top four seed.
West Region
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) New Orleans/UC Irvine
(2) Arizona vs. (15) North Dakota State
(3) UCLA vs. (14) Georgia Southern
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Vermont
(5) Cincinnati vs. (12) Nevada
(6) Maryland vs. (11) Middle Tennessee State
(7) Northwestern vs. (10) Georgia Tech
(8) Iowa State vs. (9) TCU
The undefeated Bulldogs (20-0, 8-0) are ranked No. 1 in adjusted efficiency margin, per KenPom. Gonzaga shoots 39.1 percent from deep, and takes away the arc, holding opponents to 29.8 percent. The argument against Gonzaga, like most years, is that the Bulldogs don’t play anybody. But Gonzaga crushed Saint Mary’s and did well to beat Arizona at the Staples Center in December.
If the seeds held in this region, the fans would get a rematch of that game. Arizona (18-2, 7-0) is coming on behind the inspiring efforts from freshman Lauri Markkanen. The 7-footer is averaging 18.9 points and sinking 61.8 percent on 3.0 3s per game in the Pac-12. Markkanen really stretched the floor in a 96-85 victory over UCLA (19-3, 6-3), the 3-seed, which would be the marque matchup of the Sweet 16.
The Bruins are mostly living off their victory at Kentucky in the non-conference, as UCLA is 1-3 against the RPI Top 50. But all of UCLA’s losses, including games on the road to Oregon and USC, were against quality teams. Thanks to super freshman Lonzo Ball, UCLA has been out in front of the adjusted offensive efficiency metric on KenPom all season.
Maryland (18-2, 6-1) has won five straight in the Big 10 since losing by two against Nebraska. With back-to-back road games against hungry teams like Minnesota and Ohio State on Saturday and Tuesday, respectively, we’ll see how seriously the Terrapins should be taken.
Midwest Region
(1) Baylor vs. (16) Weber State
(2) North Carolina vs. (15) East Tennessee State
(3) Oregon vs. (14) Florida Gulf Coast
(4) West Virginia vs. (13) Monmouth
(5) Saint Mary’s vs. (12) Clemson/Texas Tech
(6) South Carolina vs. (11) Michigan/VCU
(7) Virginia Tech vs. (10) California
(8) SMU vs. (9) Indiana
In Johnathan Motley and Allerik Freeman, Baylor (19-1, 7-1) has a pair of players the program has been patiently waiting to make the leap. Motley is averaging a near double-double, while Freeman is hitting 38.8 percent of his 3s. Baylor is an elite defense, and the Bears are scoring enough to hold their own against any competition.
In this region, the most talented team is North Carolina (18-3, 6-1). The Tar Heels would probably be on the top line if they didn’t drop the ball against Georgia Tech, 75-63, in the ACC opener. That game might get the Yellow Jackets in the tournament, as it’s difficult to imagine another opponent holding North Carolina to 63 points.
The Tar Heels have scored 85 or more over six straight ACC wins. The team is tops in the nation in 2-pointers, as well as offensive and total rebounds, and this big group can move the basketball and overpower defenses.
West Virginia (16-4, 5-3) and Gonzaga are the only teams in the Top 10 of offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom, giving the Mountaineers a No. 3 efficiency ranking on the site. The Sweet 16 could pair West Virginia and Baylor, and the Mountaineers are not just the only team to take down the Bears, but they did so by 21 points.
South Carolina (16-4, 6-1) is a real sleeper. The top defensive team in the nation, the Gamecocks are holding opponents to 37.3 percent shooting from the field, including the stingiest 3-point defense at 26.4 percent. The team’s resume was diminished by lackluster seasons from Michigan and Syracuse — two non-conference wins that look ho-hum weeks later — but South Carolina is dangerous.
South Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Texas Southern
(2) Kentucky vs. (15) Belmont
(3) Butler vs. (14) Winthrop
(4) Virginia vs. (13) Valparaiso
(5) Purdue vs. (12) Akron
(6) Duke vs. (11) Ohio State
(7) Xavier vs. (10) Wake Forest
(8) Wichita State vs. (9) Seton Hall
On Saturday, Kansas (18-2, 7-1) and Kentucky (17-3, 7-1) do battle at Rupp Arena. The winner would have to fall off a cliff to not grab a No. 1 seed come March. Both teams have Top 5 offenses and are off to great starts in their leagues, but I’d give the edge, in terms of resumes, to Kansas right now.
Frank Mason is doing Frank Mason to a whole new level, averaging 19.9 points, 5.2 assists and 4.4 rebounds; the Jayhawks are scoring 128.9 points per 100 possessions, per sports reference, when the senior is running the show. Freshman Josh Jackson is predictably awesome — Kansas is allowing 94.7 points per 100 possessions in the 573 minutes he’s been on the floor.
Kansas lost on the road to West Virginia, 85-69, but that might be more about how difficult it is to beat the Mountaineers at their place. The Jayhawks won 18 straight games since losing the season opener in OT to Indiana on a neutral court.
The Wildcats are second in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, with Malik Monk, the latest superstar freshman out of Kentucky, leading the way. Monk is averaging 21.9 points per game and hitting 3.1 3s on 39.9 percent shooting. Kentucky has a +26.3 net rating with Monk on the floor, per sports reference.
Kentucky has a pair of single digit losses to UCLA and Louisville, and one clunker — an 82-80 road loss to Tennessee. Outside of two games with Florida in the SEC, Saturday is the last challenge on Kentucky’s radar before the tournament. A victory could launch Kentucky into the conversation for the top overall seed.
Also in this region is Virginia (16-3, 6-2), a team that seems way too good for a No. 4 seed. KenPom has the Cavaliers ranked fourth in adjusted efficiency margin, and Tony Bennett’s club is solid in all respects. If Virginia beats Villanova on Sunday, it’s possible that the Cavaliers are vaulted into the discussion for one of the top two lines.
Xavier (14-5, 4-3) is beloved by the advanced metrics, and the Musketeers have played one of the tougher schedules in the nation. They’ve lost to Baylor, Villanova, Butler and Creighton; the lone disappointment was on the road against Colorado by two points. Xavier could use a signature win, but the Musketeers are balanced and possess big-time talent. Trevon Bluiett and Edmond Sumner get to the line in waves, and combine to score 32.6 points per game.