Top 10 MLB team over/under bets in 2017

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October 6, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Cole Hamels (35) throws in the second inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game one of the 2016 ALDS playoff baseball game at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports /

Texas Rangers

Current Bovada Win Total: 84.5

The Texas Rangers were basically the exact opposite of the Rays in terms of luck last season. The Rangers over performed in both Pythagorean and Base Runs totals by 13 wins – more than any other team in Major League Baseball. According to the underlying numbers, instead of a 95-67 record and AL West title, Texas should have gone 82-80 and missed the playoffs.

However, despite outscoring opponents by just eight runs all season, the Rangers actually were very good last year. The team also suffered a ton of injuries, yet still managed to post the best record in the American League. And, looking ahead to 2017, the lineup doesn’t show a weak spot, particularly with the addition of Mike Napoli at first base, plus a full season of Carlos Gomez in the outfield and Jonathan Lucroy behind the plate.

Though the bullpen lacks any sort of star power, it was good enough as a unit to help the Rangers go 36-11 in one-run games – by far the best record in baseball. Perhaps a little too good.

The starting rotation is also talented, particularly with Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish at the top, and the group goes six or seven deep, meaning there is also depth. However, if there is one cause for concern, the Rangers ranked No. 28 in the majors with a 4.58 FIP last season – meaning their mediocre 4.37 team ERA was a bit misleading and the team pitched a little worse that it appeared.

Overall, the projection systems aren’t big on Texas this year, in part because the club was so lucky last season. There are also questions that must be answered: Can the club shoehorn Jurickson Profar into left field on an everyday basis? Can Nomar Mazara build upon his stellar rookie campaign? Will Joey Gallo ever break out? Can the club stay healthy? As for the last one, starters Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross are already on the shelf for Opening Day.

Projections:

PECOTA: 84
Fangraphs: 83

Given their recent overachievement, it’s likely to see Texas take a step back in 2017. Plus, there’s reason to bet against Texas because of the overall strength of the AL West. The Houston Astros are bona fide World Series contenders, and the Seattle Mariners will contend for the Wild Card. The Oakland A’s are even a little better, which means every game in the division will be a dogfight for the Rangers.

Prediction: Under 84.5 Wins

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