Top 10 MLB team over/under bets in 2017

With the 2017 Major League Baseball season right around the corner, we offer 10 MLB team over/under bets to fans looking for value.

Though most sports fans might not realize it, baseball is the most profitable sport when it comes to sports betting. Because of the lack of action during the summer following the end of the NBA season and ahead of the NFL and college seasons, sports books offer good value on baseball bets.

There’s also value to be had for patient bettors in baseball via win totals. For those unfamiliar with the setup, sports books post a projected win total for all 30 Major League Baseball teams each spring. For instance, online sports book Bovada recently listed the defending World Champion Chicago Cubs to win 95.5 games in 2017 – the highest of any club.

For a fan or gambler that looks at last year’s results, likes the offseason moves the team made, and expects the Cubs to win 103 games again, he or she would bet the over. At the end of the season, if the Cubs win 96 games or more, the bet pays. If the Cubs win 95 or fewer, the bettor loses.

Of course, over/unders are popular among fans as well. The good folks at Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs work very hard to develop models to project individual player performance, which are then added up to also project team performance. Both systems are valuable tools to use for reference, and often produce projections that are also fun to debate.

Neither system is perfect – in fact, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA has been famously wrong about the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles several years running – but they are both helpful guides in our hunt for value.

By analyzing which PECOTA and Fagraphs projections fall farthest from the odds makers’ win totals, then adding our own research, insight and analysis, we’ve found 10 best over/under bets for MLB win totals for the 2017 season, for fun and profit.

Note: Any mentions of WAR in the following pages refers to the calculations done by Fangraphs. Win totals refer to those posted by Bovada as of Thursday March 16, 2017.

Tampa Bay Rays

Current Bovada Win Total: 77.5

Despite entering 2016 with postseason aspirations, the Tampa Bay Rays scuffled to a 68-94 finish – the franchise’s worst record since 2007. The Rays lost 12 more games last season than they did in 2015, which earned the club a last place finish in the AL East. Tampa Bay also tied for the second worst record in the big leagues.

There were plenty of reasons why the Rays lost 94 games, and the most painfully obvious is they failed to score enough runs. Tampa Bay ranked next to last among American League teams in runs scored (672) and on-base percentage (.307), finished dead last in the AL in batting average (.243) and strikeouts (1,482).

Given those figures, why would odds makers set this year’s win total nearly 10 wins higher? After all, the Rays traded Matt Moore last season and parted with Steve Pearce, Drew Smyly and Logan Forsythe over the winter – and only added an underperforming Cody Rasmus, untested prospect Jose De Leon and an injured Wilson Ramos. On the surface, taking the under seems like easy money. Still, there is reason to be optimistic about the Rays getting to 78 wins in 2017.

First of all, the team was better last year than its final record would indicate. According to their Pythagorean win-loss record (which takes into account runs scored versus runs allowed), Tampa Bay should have won 77 games last season. The Rays were also the unluckiest team in the majors in 2016 in terms of Base Runs (minus-13), which expected the club to finish 81-81.

Moreover, Tampa Bay relies heavily on a strong starting rotation headlined by Chris Archer, who is simply one of the most talented right-handers in baseball. The Rays also emphasize defense more than other clubs, and underrated centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier, who is projected to be a top 10 player in 2017 in terms of WAR (according to Fangraphs) primarily for his defensive skills. However, Kiermaier has 30-30 potential and it’s also worth noting the value of a healthy Kiermaier as the Rays lost 24 of the 27 games he missed due to injury last season.

Finally, the Rays hit 216 home runs last season, which ranked fourth in the AL, and Evan Longoria set a career high with 36 long balls in a bounce back season following two underwhelming campaigns. Should that power continue (or even get a boost with Ramos and Rasmus), the Rays will score more runs in 2017.

Projections:

• PECOTA: 84
• Fangraphs: 82

Given their strong pitching and defense, as well the unfortunate bad luck the team had last year, PECOTA and Fangraphs are bullish on the Rays again in 2017. A strong start is the key. If Tampa Bay struggles early in the season and falls out of Wild Card contention by the trade deadline, there will be calls to trade players like Archer and Longoria, which would signal a full teardown and rebuild that would have a major impact on the team’s record in August and September.

It seems unlikely that any team would jump from 68 to 84 wins without a massive roster overhaul, but there’s value in picking the Rays to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 77.5