DraftKings Masters DFS Preview
DraftKings Masters DFS Preview
Hello friends, Jim Nanc…well, not really, but you get it. Our first major, and my personal favorite, has finally arrived. The tour will head to iconic, Augusta National Golf Course, in Augusta, Georgia. Known for its tree lined fairways and challenging greens, the course will play at 7435 yards and a par 72. Unlike other courses, this event rewards those with prior experience. The last first time winner dates all the way back to 1979. While technology has come along way to negate some of the lack of experience, there should still be emphasis placed on course history.
In addition to course history I’ll be analyzing the familiar metrics such as: GIR, driving distance, recent form, ADJ. RD. score, Vegas odds, and birdie scoring. This course historically, has played into the hands of bombers, however, with the weather forecast looking the way it does, this could change. More on that later. Outside of our normal stats, stats like Par 5 scoring, SG tee to green, and SG on approach should be looked into further.
Weather will play a role this week. With rain soaking the course as we speak, more rain is expected Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Thursday and Friday could also provide a windy atmosphere of upwards of 20+ MPH winds. I can’t understate how big of a factor that wind can play. While as of right now, there doesn’t appear to be much a tee time advantage, you’ll have to monitor this closer to lineup lock (also check to see if the course is softer for Thursday morning golfers. Augusta has one of the best drainage systems in the world, but it could still very well play soft if they get soaked on Wednesday). I referenced that this is a bombers course, but I’m leaning towards better ball strikers now, with winds of this magnitude. After we break into the weekend though, things look much clearer and less windy. I’d recommend you be vigilant and keep a close eye on the weather as we get closer.
Top Tier: $11,500 – $8,000
Jordan Spieth – $11,500, Dustin Johnson – $11,300, Rory Mcilroy – $10,600 – CASH
Spieth, Johnson, and Mcilroy stand out as the elite group this week, with each golfer’s odds to win above 10%. However, quite honestly, it’s splitting hairs among this group. Spieth has the edge in course history, DJ is in incredible recent form, and Rory is the best DraftKings scorer on tour, so you can’t really go wrong. I could make a drawn out case for either one, but I honestly feel that I’ll be spreading out my ownership to each. I think in the Milly Maker, ownership from highest to lowest will be: DJ, Rory, Spieth, but they will all be very close.
I’ve excluded Jason Day for a number of reasons. First, is the family issues that he’s admitted to affecting his play, second, is his swing change, third, is his lingering injuries, and fourth, is his awful recent form. If you’re looking to go super contrarian, Day would be your guy, but I’ll be fully fading this week.
Hideki Matsuyama – $9900, Henrick Stenson – $9500, Justin Thomas $8900 – GPP
These are the most intriguing golfers from a game theory perspective. I’d expect all three to be underowned, making for justifiable tournament plays. I’ll be over weight on Matsuyama and Thomas, given how well they excel in windy conditions. Earlier this year we’ve seen Thomas crush courses affected by wind, most notably, his two wins in Hawaii. Matsuyama on the other hand, being one of the best ball strikers on tour, could also benefit from the windy conditions. I went back and back tested how he performs in tournaments with winds of 15 MPH or more. In 11 matching samples, dating back no further than 2014. Matsuyama performed 15.19 points better than his expected salary adjusted score. In tournaments where wind was below 15 MPH he only scored 6.73 points better than his expected. While an 11 tournament sample isn’t nearly enough to 100% buy into the narrative, it’s enough to warrant consideration. Also note, the wind may only be a factor over the course of the first two days.
Other players to have exposure to:
Cash: Rahm
GPP: Fowler, Rose, Scott, Mickelson, Garcia, Oosthuizen
Mid Tier: $8,000 – $7,000
Paul Casey – $7800 – CASH
Paul Casey will be one of the highest owned golfers this weekend, and for good reason. He’s grossly mis-priced relative to his Vegas implied chance to win, of 2.9%. Casey has an impressive combination of ball striking and distance and he’s hit 70.4% of GIR this year. In his last two Masters appearances, he’s recorded a 4th and 6th place finish.
Marc Leishman – $7100 – CASH/GPP
Marc Leishman has been on fire to start the year. It seems as if any time he makes an appearance he’s locked into a top 20 finish. He’s failed to make the cut only once, and in those other six outings this year, he’s finished no worse than 27th. The only red flag for Leishman is his course history at Augusta. In his four times playing here, he’s missed the cut in 3 of those.
Other players to have exposure to:
Cash: Hatton, Kuchar
GPP: Schwartzel, Walker, Koepka, Fitzpatrick, Kuchar, Berger, Grillo, Furyk, Henley, Dufner, Steele, Hoffman, An, Knox, Sullivan, Moore
Bottom Tier Picks: $7,000 – $6,000
Adam Hadwin – $6900 – CASH
Adam Hadwin is another golfer than you can project to be highly owned. The Canadian has been tearing it up of late, including earning his first PGA win at the Valspar Championship. Hadwin is simply too cheap here, given his all around game and recent form. Hadwin hasn’t missed a cut all year and offers the savings needed for cash games. The only knock on Hadwin is how he’s relied on his putting. Putting advantages tend to get negated here, given the difficulty of the greens, lack of course history, and the impending wind.
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Hudson Swafford – $7000 – GPP
Hudson Swafford is one of the first time Masters players I’ll be looking to get exposure to this week. Swafford struggled a bit earlier in the year with three, back to back, missed cuts. However, he’s seemingly turned his game around of late including a 10th place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a 6th place finish at the Houston Open. If you’re targeting bombers, consider Swafford, who has a course and field adjusted driving distance of 305.1 yards. He also ranks highly in this Masters’ field in par 5 scoring, at -4.8
Other players to have exposure to:
Cash: Kisner
GPP: Fleetwood, Kisner, Fisher, Wood,
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