Marlins J.T. Realmuto: Sell high candidate?
By Gavin Tramps
Miami Marlins catcher J.R Realmuto won the NL Player of the Week Award after a fantastic start to the season. His production is unlikely to be sustainable so why not try to sell high?
J.T. Realmuto has been nothing short of sensational in the opening week and a half of the season for the Miami Marlins. The catcher is hitting .462 (12-for-26) with seven runs, six RBI, a double, a triple and two home runs.
Obviously, no one thinks this level of production will continue, but what should you expect for the rest of the season?
In his last two seasons in the minors and the two seasons since his promotion to the majors, Realmuto has scored 216 runs with 34 home runs, 196 RBI and 47 stolen bases. The preseason projection of 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases with around 50 runs and 50 RBI looks to be a realistic expectation.
With an ADP of 136, Realmuto was the seventh catcher off the board, taken just behind Evan Gattis and a few spots ahead of Yasmani Grandal and Salvador Perez.
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The preseason hype for Realmuto was high, but the assumption that he would post a batting average around .300 seemed misguided. In 2016, he hit .303, which was 44 points higher than the previous season.
This was partly fueled by an unsustainable .357 BABIP. The league average BABIP is in the region of .300 and Realmuto’s 2015 BABIP was just .285, so it is difficult to see how the 26-year-old will be able to achieve a batting average above .300 in 2017.
Currently, he has the unusual statistic of a higher batting average (.462) than BABIP (.435). It is almost inevitable that both will have dropped before the end of April.
In over 1500 at-bats in the minor leagues, Realmuto had a 17.7% strikeout rate. This is almost identical to the 17.8% strikeout rate in his Major League career before this season. This season he has a 3.6% strikeout rate, which is another anomaly likely to see a regression back to his usual career mark.
Undoubtedly you are very pleased with the production you are getting from Realmuto but it is unlikely to continue, so why not try to sell high? Maybe your other league members think he will eclipse last season’s stats, or perhaps, they think that the 2017 Realmuto will continue to walk twice as often as striking out while making contact at career-high levels.
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Why not target one of the top four pitchers in your trade offers? All have started 2017 less impressively than Realmuto. Buster Posey is currently on the 7-day disabled list after taking a pitch to the head. Jonathan Lucroy is slashing .250/.250/.400 and has yet to take a walk. Kyle Schwarber is hitting just .222. Although Gary Sanchez will miss the next four weeks, he could still be a target in shallow leagues if you use the hottest hand off waivers for the next month. All four catchers are likely to finish above Realmuto by the end of the season.