Fantasy Football 2017: 5 Quarterbacks busts to beware

1. Matt Ryan

The average fan doesn’t realize how important an offensive coordinator is. Kyle Shanahan, Matt Ryan’s offensive coordinator from a year ago, has since departed to become the head coach of the 49ers. This Falcons offense in 2016 put up historic numbers as they were the seventh-highest scoring offense in NFL history.

It’s going to be hard to repeat 33.8 points per game. To do so without Shanahan makes this task seem rather impossible. Are we sure Ryan and the Falcons are even going to rebound from that epic Super Bowl meltdown?

There’s no denying that Shanahan elevated Ryan’s play over the last season. Ryan, 32, set a career-bests in touchdowns (38), passing yards (4,944), completion percentage (69.9%), and interceptions (7). I have my doubts that Ryan can put up those kind of numbers without Shanahan. Why? Because he hasn’t shown an ability to come close without his former play-caller. Quarterbacks just don’t magically improve in their 30s; this was coaching folks.

What made Matty Ice so successful in 2016 was the implementation of a heavy play-action pass offense. Ryan was often on the move as the Falcons ran more play-action pass than any team in the league a year ago. The famous bootleg in Shanahan’s offense made Atlanta’s offense unstoppable.

The Falcons defeated their opponents by 14.1 points per game in 2016. Even if the Falcons are good again in 2017, the number isn’t attainable. Atlanta averaged 7.6 yards per play on first down as they were never in a bad place to start out a drive a year ago. Let’s also factor in that Atlanta sported the 27th-ranked defense a year ago (25.4 points allowed per game). If the team doesn’t score at a similar rate this year, things could get ugly fast in Atlanta. The Falcons will be playing a first place schedule in a much-improved division this season.

Prior to Shanahan’s arrival in 2014, Ryan ranked seventh in fantasy points among quarterbacks throwing 10 fewer touchdowns and seven more interceptions from his 2016 totals. In 2013, Ryan ranked 15th among QBs in fantasy points throwing for 26 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

Julio Jones has been a constant in this offense but Ryan simply hasn’t always performed like how he performed a year ago. The coaching of Shanahan clearly took him to heights that may not be attainable in 2017.

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Atlanta’s new offensive coordinator will be Steve Sarkisian. Sark hasn’t coached in the NFL since 2004 as a quarterback coach with the Raiders. While Sarkisian is a brilliant mind who did wonders with the University of Washington, USC, and most recently Alabama, he is unproven at the NFL level. It’s unclear how much Sark will tinker with this Falcons offense that was good enough to appear in the Super Bowl.

If Sarkisian fails as a play caller, Ryan’s numbers will presumably plummet. Even if Ryan returns to form, there’s really no reason to reach for him given the fact that there are tons of quarterback options available.