2017-18 fantasy basketball preview: Busts to avoid

Now that we’ve touched on some fantasy basketball sleepers to target in drafts this year, let’s look at the inverse: players to avoid at their current draft-day prices.

A fantasy “bust” doesn’t mean a player isn’t worth owning whatsoever. A majority of the players featured here still fall within my top 100, but they’re each ranked at least a full round lower on my big board than they are in terms of their average draft position. You shouldn’t automatically cross these guys off your list of players worth drafting—if any of them wind up tumbling, go after them by all means!—but you’re likely to be disappointed if you reach on these players.

We’ve already touched on why Jabari Parker, Dario Saric, Jonas Valanciunas, Zach Randolph and Gorgui Dieng fall into this category in our Top 200 big board, but those aren’t the only five players to avoid at their current ADPs. Whether due to new competition for playing time, smaller-than-expected roles in their respective rotations, injuries or typical rookie malaise, fantasy owners should beware when targeting the following 10 players in drafts this season.

Isaiah Thomas, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers (Rank: 72; ADP: 46.0)

Unless your league gives you an injured reserve roster spot, it’s difficult to justify drafting Isaiah Thomas within the top 50 this year. The Cleveland Cavaliers have already declared they don’t expect Thomas to be back on the floor until January at the earliest as he continues to rehab his right hip impingement, and there’s no guarantee he hits the ground running once he does return.

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Thomas’ upside is undeniable — he averaged a career-high 28.9 points on 46.3 percent shooting, 5.9 assists, 3.2 triples, 2.7 rebounds and 0.9 steals in 33.8 minutes with the Boston Celtics last season to finish as the 11th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues—but so is the downside. If the diminutive floor general suffers any setbacks in his recovery or the Cavaliers ease him back into action once he’s healthy enough to play, he may not begin posting top-100 value until right around the All-Star break.

The Cavaliers’ acquisition of Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade give them some breathing room with regard to Thomas’ return, as both players can absorb some ball-handling duties in his absence. A deep playoff run will be far more important to Cleveland than adding a few more (relatively meaningless) regular-season wins, so keeping Thomas healthy and helping him avoid any hip-related setbacks should be among the team’s top priorities this year. Gamble on him in the eighth round, especially if you have an IR spot, but don’t take him anywhere close to the top 50.