More unknowns than usual in unpredictable Daytona 500

The Great American Race always has its share of uncertainty, but the 60th editions promises more than most.

While every driver in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series garage would love to win the sport’s biggest race, if forced to answer truthfully, they — and especially their crew chiefs — would tell you that there’s a great deal of anxiety that comes with the Daytona 500 as well because the list of things they don’t know is longer than the list they do.

Part of that is due to the very nature of racing at Daytona International Speedway, where restrictor plates keep cars bunched together tighter than anywhere else but Talladega. But the 2018 race has even more potential monkey wrenches than ever that could ruin a team’s day.

They start with new ride-height rules, or the lack thereof. In theory, allowing teams to keep their cars closer to the track should increase speed and decrease handling, which is something that drivers paradoxically prefer since it places a greater emphasis on driver skill, though the jury is still out how it will play out on race day.

On top of that, NASCAR introduced new pit road regulations that reduce the number of crew members who are allowed to service cars at the same time. There’s been precious little time to practice something so critical to success, and there’s almost guaranteed to be some big name drivers who end up with penalties as a result.

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Finally, there are different faces in a number of key places, beginning with the man up front when the green flag drops. Dale Earnhardt Jr., who Darrell Waltrip likes to call the Pied Piper of Daytona, is gone, but the new driver in the No. 88 Chevrolet, Alex Bowman, picked up right where he left off by winning the pole. He’s just one of a number of drivers who should have a shot to win, as nearly anyone from one of NASCAR’s top teams has a chance to claim the victory.

So where does that leave us as far as a list of things we do know? Cars will get torn up, and some favorites are going to end up knocked out of the race. An overtime or two would not be a surprise, which could lead to a close finish — though it’s literally impossible for it to be closer than Saturday night’s XFINITY Series race, which Tyler Reddick official won by .000 seconds. Almost everything else looks like a crap shoot, but that’s one of the reasons the Daytona 500 is always worth watching.

Forecast

Though the morning saw Daytona blanketed in fog, the actual racing conditions should be gorgeous for the 2018 Daytona 500. Weather Channel expects sunshine and temperatures in the mid-70s during the hours the race is run, with a little bit of wind and just a small chance of rain as the evening arrives. All told, Mother Nature should be one of the lesser headaches.

Six things to watch

• Will the racing actually be good? The Truck Series and XFINITY Series races had plenty of excitement, but that doesn’t always carry over to the Cup Series cars, which have the most horsepower and their own set of rules. The Clash was not super exciting, which could be a bad omen since it had most of the top drivers in it. Cars clumped close together doesn’t automatically mean thrills, but the guess here is that there will be a fair amount of passes for the lead even when big wrecks aren’t involved.
• Youth will quite possibly be served. If Kyle Busch was upset about NASCAR’s promotion of young drivers before, he might be really mad after Daytona. Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott won their respective Can-Am Duels and will most likely be factors if they can stay out of trouble. Bowman, as noted, is on the pole. Someone under 25 could absolutely walk away with the trophy.
• Whither the champion? Martin Truex Jr. was a deserving 2017 Cup Series champion because he was fast at just about every single track. So far during Speedweeks, he hasn’t looked all that quick. It could be that dropping down to one car is going to affect Furniture Row Racing for a few weeks, or it could be just the normal adjustments that come with new rules. But it will be worth keeping an eye on Truex to see if he’s not quite on top of his game yet for the new season.
• Is there another Trevor Bayne in this field? Bayne had the most thrilling Daytona 500 win of this decade when he drove the Wood Brothers Ford to victory in 2011, an unheralded driver with a single-car team. There are less drivers in similar situations now, and Truex definitely doesn’t count. Even if wrecks wipe out half the field, it’ll be hard for someone to duplicate Bayne’s feat in 2018, but keep an eye out for Bubba Wallace, who looked good in his Duel and might have the savvy to be around at the end despite being a Cup Series rookie.
• Will Danica make any noise? One of the reasons it made sense for Danica Patrick to end her NASCAR career at Daytona is that she’s had some of her best moments there. Her Premium Motorsports Chevrolet doesn’t look particularly fast, but at least it’ll be easy to pick out in the draft because of the GoDaddy green. And hey, it’s Daytona, so you never know.
• Back to front. Some really good drivers and cars are starting from the back of the field due to wrecks in the Can-Am Duels. Don’t expect Brad Keselowski, William Byron, Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Larson to be stuck near the rear for too long, though it’s always nerve-wracking having to make your way up through so many cars in a restrictor plate race.

Next: Daytona 500 starting grid, lineup

Predictions

Trying to figure out who will take the checkered flag for the Daytona 500 is almost always a fool’s errand simply because there are so many factors that could play into the outcome, and the fastest car definitely doesn’t always win. Still, this feels like a Ford week and the Team Penske cars have looked great, so we’ll go with Brad Keselowski to shake off his poor starting spot and win his first Great American Race, giving him less reason to gripe about Ford’s perceived disadvantages versus Chevy and Toyota for the rest of the 2018 season — or at least for a few weeks.

As for a dark horse pick, keep an eye on Daniel Suarez. The Joe Gibbs Racing sophomore hasn’t been talked up nearly as much as his fellow young guns during the offseason, and he’s not even the new guy at JGR thanks to Erik Jones. But his style of sneakily being in the top 10 even though you didn’t notice him is reminiscent of Matt Kenseth, and since he was in the mix on Saturday night, it would not be shocking to see him lingering within striking distance late on Sunday afternoon.