Indians Jason Kipnis: Fantasy Bounceback on the Horizon?

By Brad Kelly | Mar 3, 2018

NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 08: Jason Kipnis /

Jason Kipnis limped through 2017 due to various nagging injuries. Yet, now healthy and swinging the bat well this spring, is a bounce-back coming for the Indians?

The Indians are undoubtedly one of the best teams in all of MLB, having an enviable blend of talent and depth. Even though they won 102 games last season, the team did the majority of it without their former All-Star second baseman, Jason Kipnis. Now that Kipnis is healthy again, can fantasy owners reinvest heading into 2018?

Kipnis has held solid fantasy value since 2012 and was once one of the marquee second basemen to own. His early years saw him posting 14 HR/31 SB and 17 HR/30 SB type of lines, yet his production shifted in 2014 and 2015. The power evaporated and even the steals began to wane, as he all of a sudden morphed into a doubles machine with a solid AVG.

Heading into 2016, Kipnis was being undervalued and he responded in a huge way as he posted a .275/23 HR/82 RBI/15 SB/.811 OPS line that season. Now that it seemed as though he altered his swing and prioritized lifting the ball again, he was a prime target for owners in 2017.

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Unfortunately, Kipnis blew up in fantasy owners’ faces. He suffered a shoulder injury last spring, that issue trickled into the regular season, and he then would suffer two hamstring issues as well. He ended 2017 with a paltry .232/12 HR/35 RBI/6 SB/.705 OPS line over only 90 games.

The Tribe tried to dish him in the offseason, and could not get the package they wanted, leaving them with Kipnis as their starting second baseman yet again in 2018. Fantasy owners know that the second base position is surprisingly deep this year, leaving Kipnis’ value for this season at an interesting point.

While it is a smaller sample size, Kipnis’ batted ball data was encouraging in 2017. He posted 20% LD, 36% GB, 44% FB , 48% Med, 30% Hard contact rates. The FB rate would have been the highest of his career over a full season, and his Med and Hard contact rates were close to his prime years.

Another encouraging sign was that he maintained his 80% contact rate as well, so it is not as though his ability to make decent contact is vanishing. Batting average is already the hardest stat to predict, and for Kipnis, trying to predict it is nearly impossible. Based on his batted ball profile, he is not the .232 hitter we saw last year.

With his increase is launch angle, the AVG probably will not get back to the .300 mark either. Thus, making around the .260 mark a good baseline for owners to operate under when targeting him.

Speed wise, Kipnis only attempted one SB over the second half of 2017, proving that he did not take any risks with his hamstring. From 2012-2016, Kipnis attempted at least 18 SB per season, so even though he will be 31 this season, there is no reason he can not flirt with the 15 SB mark again.

Fantasy owners can also find solace in knowing that Kipnis will slot near the top of the order for the Indians which is one of the best lineup slots for any player. With Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Francisco Lindor batting somewhere near or around him, the counting stat potential is huge.

Spring training stats can mean very little for some, yet owners and fantasy owners have to be intrigued that Kipnis has already homered three times in eight at-bats. His early ADP has Kipnis being selected around the 250 overall mark, and outside of the top-15 second baseman.

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With an increase in launch angle, solid batted ball data, a great lineup spot, and 20 HR/15 SB potential, Kipnis can be targeted once again. I would be ok with taking Kipnis over the likes of Jonathan Villar, Chris Taylor, Scooter Gennett, and Paul DeJong, all players that are being taken around where Kipnis is going.

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