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Kansas faces tough task after Udoka Azubuike injury

By Chris Stone

LAWRENCE, KS - FEBRUARY 19: Udoka Azubuike #35 of the Kansas Jayhawks waits for a time out to end during a game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Allen Fieldhouse on February 19, 2018 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
LAWRENCE, KS - FEBRUARY 19: Udoka Azubuike #35 of the Kansas Jayhawks waits for a time out to end during a game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Allen Fieldhouse on February 19, 2018 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) /
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Udoka Azubuike will miss at least a week with an MCL sprain

On Wednesday afternoon, Kansas announced sophomore center Udoka Azubuike will miss the Big 12 conference tournament after suffering a grade one MCL sprain in practice on March 6. The 7-footer will be re-evaluated on Sunday and is expected to return next week ahead of the NCAA Tournament.

History suggests that may be an aggressive timeline. Jayhawk fans will point to former forward Perry Ellis bouncing back from a similar MCL sprain as a junior in 2015. Ellis missed just a week before returning for the league tournament where he struggled through a pair of contests in limited minutes. However, other timelines are less optimistic.

Back in 2016 when Golden State star Steph Curry suffered a grade one MCL sprain, Jeff Stotts at In Street Clothes reached into his NBA injury database to evaluate Curry’s potential return time. He found 11 instances of mild MCL sprains and although a few players returned quickly, the average missed time was around 15 days.

The difference between one week and two is obviously significant for Kansas given the time of year. If Azubuike misses the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament, the Jayhawks could face a potential early exit.

According to play-by-play data compiled by Hoop Lens, Kansas is 21 points per 100 possessions worse as a team with Azubuike off the floor this season as the Jayhawks have outscored opponents by just two points per 100 possessions with him on the bench.

The good news is the defensive gap between lineups with and without Azubuike is almost entirely due to 3-point variance. Azubuike’s backups rebound and challenge shots about as well as the 7-footer despite being smaller in stature.

The bad news is significant offensive changes occur when Azubuike hits the bench. Kansas’ 2-point percentage falls off a cliff, going from nearly 60.0 percent to just 51.0. It’s not hard to understand why.

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Among players with at least 30 shot attempts around the basket, Azubuike ranks out as the most efficient finisher in college basketball, per Synergy, converting 89.4 percent of his attempts. His replacements, Mitch Lightfoot (56.9 percent) and Silvio De Sousa (60.0), don’t quite stack up. Factor in Azubuike’s post up game and Kansas is likely to have to make significant changes to how it operates its offense.

Assuming Azubuike returns at full health for the NCAA Tournament, the consequences for the Jayhawks will be minimal. Sure, they probably won’t cut down the nets in Kansas City, but that’s unlikely to affect their March Madness seeding. The bigger concern comes down the line if the 7-footer misses any additional time.