It’s early, but it already looks like there are only 3 NASCAR Cup Series championship contenders

Three drivers have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, and everyone else is going to have to play catch-up the rest of this NASCAR Cup Series season.

It’s not like it’s been an uneventful start to the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season, but the more things change, the more they stay the same. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Danica Patrick and Mat Kenseth are gone, the Chevrolet drivers have a new Camaro, and plenty of other pieces have moved around the board. Yet through five races, almost 20 percent of the regular season, the most striking realization is how little has changed when it comes to this year’s title contenders.

Last year’s Championship 4 consisted of Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski. Right now, the first three of those drivers are the only ones who look like they have what it takes to be back there again.

Harvick’s credentials speak for themselves. After winning three straight races, he looked primed to challenge for a fourth at Fontana before getting the worst of some contact with Kyle Larson. Before the Auto Club 400 started, the Fox Sports crew was debating if he might win seven or even 10 races this season. It would take a massive dip in form for him not to be around until late in the playoffs.

The shadow cast by Harvick allowed Truex to lie low, but at California, he served notice he was ready to defend his title by winning both stages and then the race. He’s finished in the top five at every race except Daytona, and only his short track performance looks like a potential Achilles heel — and there aren’t enough of those overall to stop him.

The case for Busch isn’t as obvious, but he’s the only other driver who’s really felt like he had a chance to win during NASCAR’s western swing. It’s also notable that he started slowly last year, not winning until the second Pocono race, but he’s finished better in each of the first five races in 2018 than he did at those same tracks in 2017. He’s going to be there at the end.

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It’s become pretty obvious that the strong teams from last season are still strong, and no one else has really picked up the gauntlet they’ve thrown down. Richard Childress Racing (Austin Dillon’s Daytona 500 win notwithstanding) and Roush Fenway Racing don’t look like they’ve improved to become factors, and Hendrick Motorsports is struggling. Most importantly, the young guns may be coming, but they haven’t arrived just yet.

(If that sounds like Kyle Busch was right, well … he kind of has been so far.)

Happily for the rest of the NASCAR Cup Series garage, it’s the Championship 4, not the Championship 3. Someone else is going to join Truex, Harvick and Kyle Busch as legitimately dangerous title contenders, but it’s probably going to take multiple victories to convince everyone they belong. Here’s a quick look at who that might be in descending order of likelihood.

• Anyone from Team Penske – Take your pick. Brad K. is the most obvious choice and would make for the most deja vu possibility, but Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney have shown plenty of speed. They just seem to be a half-step behind the top three drivers.
• Kyle Larson – Lots of people still believe Larson will be a factor, but he’s not been as hot to start 2018 as he was last year. Whether it’s the switch to the Camaro or something else, the 42 team hasn’t hit its stride yet.
• Denny Hamlin – Talks the talk and has been fast, but he’s not even the top gun on his own team. Hamlin’s 2017 wins both came in the last eight races of the regular season, so seeing him come on later wouldn’t be a shock.
• Chase Elliott and Jimmie Johnson – You figure someone from Hendrick will break out at some point, but they need to first continually be in the top 10 before we can talk about multiple victories and possible championship aspirations.
• One of Harvick’s Stewart-Haas Racing teammates – Yes, the whole SHR squad has been strong, and their cars are obviously very good, but let’s remember that Clint Bowyer, Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola have combined for two wins combined over the last two seasons. There’s a big step up still to come if any of them want to make a deep playoff run.

Next: NASCAR Cup Series standings after California

The glorious part of the lengthy NASCAR season is that there’s plenty of time for someone to figure things out and get hot, and history tells us there’s likely to be several drivers who win more than one race that currently have zero victories. But until that happens, Truex, Harvick and Kyle Busch have the look of potential champions and everyone else has plenty of work to do to get to that level.