U.S. Open 2018 preview: Predictions, picks and upsets

The top five

Here’s a look at how the top five players in the world could fare at the 2018 U.S. Open.

1. Dustin Johnson

After giving up the top spot in the world rankings for a few weeks, Dustin Johnson reclaimed his place atop the golf world over the weekend with a dominating performance in Memphis. Holing out for eagle on the 72nd hole to close things out, DJ ended up winning the FedEx St. Jude Classic by six shots and is coming in hot to Shinnecock Hills. A long golf course is never a problem for Johnson, who is averaging 310.8 yards off the tee, and he’s the favorite right now to win this golf tournament. He hasn’t finished lower than 17th in his last five starts and will be part of a monster group on Thursday and Friday with Justin Thomas and Tiger Woods.

2. Justin Thomas

It will be interesting to see how Justin Thomas reacts to losing his number one ranking but I’m betting that he’ll be just fine. JT hasn’t finished out of the top 25 since last year’s BMW Championship during the FedExCup Playoffs, which is a stretch of 15 starts, two of which were victories. His most recent finish was a tie for eighth at the Memorial and he should be nice and rested when he tees off on Thursday. The spotlight will be on his group over the first two days and he’s got a real good shot to have the spotlight on him all weekend as well.

3. Justin Rose

Outside of Dustin Johnson, there might not be a hotter golfer coming into this U.S. Open than Justin Rose. He hasn’t missed a cut in 2018 and shot 20-under over Memorial Day weekend at Colonial to win the Fort Worth Invitational by three strokes and followed it up with a solid T-6 at the Memorial. Rose is one of the most consistent players in recent memory and obviously has what it takes to win a U.S. Open, having won at Merion five years ago. It is quite a shock that he’s missed out on the weekend the last two years at this tournament but I think Shinnecock Hills sets up nicely for him. If the greens harden up and balls end up rolling off, his excellent short game will save a lot of pars for him and that may come up big.

4. Jordan Spieth

After a tie for third in Houston and a solo third at The Masters, it seemed as if Jordan Spieth was on his way back to the winner’s circle for the first time since last summer at The Open Championship, but he just hasn’t been able to quite put it all together. He’s showed flashes of brilliance with some great rounds but can’t bring four together. He finished tied for 41st at The Players Championship, did sneak in a top 25 with a T-21 at the Byron Nelson but fell back to a tie for 32nd at Colonial and then missed the cut at the Memorial. The 2015 U.S. Open champ does know how to win major championships so he’ll always have that going for him and this layout may suit him. It’ll be interesting to see which Jordan Spieth shows up this week.

5. Jon Rahm

The only player in the top five in the world without a major championship victory, 23-year-old Jon Rahm comes to Shinnecock Hills looking for that breakthrough victory. He’s played some very solid golf recently, finishing in the top five in three of his last four starts. He finished in solo fourth at Augusta, his best-ever finish at a major, followed it up with a win at the Open de Espana, hiccuped a bit at The Players Championship with a T-63 but came back strong with a tie for fifth at Colonial. Rahm was the low amateur in his U.S. Open debut two years ago as he tied for 23rd but missed the cut last year. Playing alongside fellow countrymen Sergio Garcia and Rafa Cabrera-Bello the first two rounds should make him very comfortable and could help him to a hot start.