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NFL betting guide, Week 5: Roll with Mahomes and the Ravens

By Rucker Haringey

DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 01: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates a touchdown against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 1, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 01: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates a touchdown against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 1, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /
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NASHVILLE, TN – SEPTEMBER 30: Marcus Mariota #8 of the Tennessee Titans is congratulated as he removes his helmet after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 26-23 in overtime at Nissan Stadium on September 30, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TN – SEPTEMBER 30: Marcus Mariota #8 of the Tennessee Titans is congratulated as he removes his helmet after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 26-23 in overtime at Nissan Stadium on September 30, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) /

2. Take Tennessee -3.5 at Buffalo

Most teams that just beat the defending Super Bowl champions get more respect from the oddsmakers than the Titans are getting this week. Only giving up 3.5 points at arguably the worst team in the NFL seems too good to be true.

In all fairness to the line, the Titans have been up and down on offense this season. We tend to think that’s largely a function of Marcus Mariota’s health. The former Oregon star clearly showed he’s feeling good against the Eagles last week. He engineered a crucial overtime drive to deliver a win for his team.

As a reminder, the Bills couldn’t manage a single point against a really mediocre Green Bay defense. The Titans should be able to keep Josh Allen out of rhythm all game long. We’re not necessarily predicting another shutout, but it’s hard to imagine Buffalo scoring very often against this defense.

Add it all up and this feels like a low-scoring, relatively easy win for the Titans. Something like 20-10 feels right. That should give Mariota and company a pretty easy cover. This is another line that you can tease to 6.5 if you want more value. That’s a much riskier bet, but the reward may be worth it.