NBA Season Preview 2018-19: Can Oladipo sustain the Pacers in the clutch?

The Pacers were one of the biggest surprises in the NBA last season, winning 48 games and giving the Cavaliers all they could handle in a seven-game first round series. One of the biggest reasons the Pacers were able to outperform expectations is that they were able to win a lot more games than they probably should have.

Although they won 48 games, their margin of victory was about what we’d expect from a 45-win team. One of the biggest drivers of their final record was their ability to win tight games. Only four teams — the Rockets, Cavaliers, Celtics and Warriors — had a better win percentage in games where the margin was within five points at any time in the game’s final five minutes.

The Pacers outscored opponents by an average of 17.7 points per 100 possessions in clutch situations, a mark that ranked behind only the Rockets and Cavaliers.

The Pacers engine in close games was, of course, Victor Oladipo. His usage rate surged from 30.0 percent across all minutes to 41.1 percent in the clutch. Amazingly, his efficiency increased as well with his true shooting percentage jumping from 57.7 to 59.6.

In clutch situations, Oladipo tended to be creating for himself last season — just 11.1 percent of his made clutch baskets were assisted on — and he definitely was carried by some pull-up 3-point shooting that is perhaps unsustainable. But he also got to the free throw line much more frequently in clutch situations which should be a reliable and consistent means of creating scoring opportunities.

The concern for the Pacers is how sustainable this path to victory is. Clutch performance is usually fairly unstable from year-to-year. Given what an outlier last season was for Oladipo on the whole, regression in the clutch has to be a major concern, even if the team is hoping that improvements across the rest of the roster will make tight games a rarer occurrence. Adding Tyreke Evans will help, although he struggled in clutch situations last season, he’s a shot creator who can share the floor with Oladipo for key possessions, lightening the load on both of them.

Building on last season is not going to be an easy challenge for the Pacers. They’ve added some key pieces, but so many things broke right for them last year, a simple balancing of the universe’s scales could negate some of their roster’s improvements.