NBA Season Preview 2018-19: The Spurs and death by a million mid-range shots

The San Antonio Spurs come into the 2018-19 season with a very different locker room than the one that ended the season in late April. Out went disgruntled the Kawhi Leonard, along with the legends Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, and two key players in Kyle Anderson and Danny Green.  Those are real losses, both in terms of what Gregg Popovich calls “corporate knowledge” and on-court talent. Kyle Anderson was a very good starter last year, and the decision to let him walk was surprising. Danny Green has been Pop’s whipping boy for half of a decade. Manu and Tony… well they helped build the legend of the Spurs, and their impacts in the locker room cannot be replaced.

Who knows what really happened with Kawhi Leonard, but he is gone now and in his place, the Spurs have a new star ball handler to build around. DeMar DeRozan has been top 11 in MVP voting for the past two years and has made an all-NBA team in both as well. Last season he became a more willing shooter and a better passer, helping to alleviate some of the issues his lack of perimeter game can cause.

The other key return in the Leonard trade, Jakob Poeltl, is an incredibly solid young center. Poeltl does not have the star potential that many hoped for as a return in the Leonard deal, but he has the next Tiago Splitter written all over him. Poeltl is a capable passer, strong rebounder, efficient finisher and great rim protector. He is the kind of player you can easily see playing 25-28 minutes per game on a contending team with his all-around skill set and low usage requirement.

The main question for the Spurs to answer is how many mid-range shots are there going to be. In the regular season last year, LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan were two of the three players to take at least 600 2-point shots from further than 10-feet from the basket. The Spurs last year were tied with the Pacers for the second most shots per 100 possessions in that same range at 25.7 per 100 possessions.

Overall, the league shoots about 41 percent from shots in the mid-range. Aldridge and DeRozan shot 44 percent and 43 percent, respectively, last season on these shots. They are two of the most high-volume, high-efficiency players from the range and if any team can build an offense around mid-range shots it would be these Spurs, under the GOAT coach. But, in 2018-19, the math problem of 3 > 2 might just be too much for even the best mid-range artists to overcome.

This will surely be one of the most fascinating, and challenging, years in the storied history of the Spurs franchise.