When could Alex Ovechkin become the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer?

Alex Ovechkin isn’t showing signs of slowing down, but could he actually pass Wayne Gretzky and become the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer?

With 51 goals this season, Washington Capitals winger Alex Ovechkin is the third player in NHL history with eight 50-goal seasons (Wayne Gretzky and Mike Bossy are the other two). He is also four goals clear of John Tavares and Leon Draisaitl for the league lead in goals, so he’s on his way to leading the league in goals for a record eighth time.

Oveckin has 658 career goals, which puts him well into the active lead (leaving out Jaromir Jagr, who has not played in the NHL this year), but he’s 236 goals behind all-time leader Gretzky.

Ovechkin has stayed remarkably healthy during his career, missing more than four games in a season just once. He isn’t showing any real signs of slowing down at 33 years old, but via Tom Gulitti of NHL.com he knows his pursuit of Gretzky’s record will take being in peak physical condition for a while longer.

"I have to be healthy. I have to be in good shape,” Ovechkin said. “I’m going to try to do it, but you don’t know what’s going to happen in the future."

Just over two years ago, in January of 2017, Ovechkin dismissed the possibility of catching Gretzky.

"I don’t think that’s possible,” “I talked to Wayne and I don’t think those records can be beaten, ever."

On NHL Network last month, Gretzky said Ovechkin had a “legitimate chance” to set a new NHL goal scoring standard.

As of Wednesday, Ovechkin is 33 years and 198 days old. Gretzky was 33 years and 56 days old on March 23, 1994, when he scored the 802nd goal of his career, passing Gordie Howe for the all-time lead. So Ovechkin is well behind Gretzky’s pace, and “The Great One” would score 91 more goals over his final five seasons (362 games).

So could Ovechkin really pass Gretzky? And when could he reach 895 goals?

To no one’s surprise, Ovechkin is traditionally among the NHL leaders in shots on goal. For his career (entering his next game Thursday night) he’s averaging 4.8 shots per game. His career shooting percentage is 12.6, though it’s worth noting he’s well above that mark this year (15.4 percent), and has been at or above that mark in six of the last seven seasons.

In 13 non-lockout shortened seasons in his career, Ovechkin has averaged 79.5 games played per season. Using his average shots per game in those seasons, which is still 4.8, that’s 381.6 shots per game.

So let’s say 382 shots per season, and let’s go up to a shooting percentage of 13 percent since Ovechkin has passed that mark in five of the last seven seasons. That’s 49.6 goals per season, which can easily be rounded to 50.

Now here’s some more math. It’ll take 237 goals for Ovechkin to pass Gretzky. Divided by 49, or 50, that’s either 4.7 or 4.8. So well into five seasons from now, the 2023-24 campaign, somewhere in the neighborhood of game No. 60, Ovechkin could pass Gretzky with his 895th career goal. He will also turn 38 before that season starts, and any real slippage from his current levels going forward sets that pace even further out.

For comparison sake, Gretzky had nine goals and 53 assists during the 1998-99 season with the New York Rangers. He turned 38 during that season, and retired after it.

So it doesn’t seem likely Ovechkin will become the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer, rooted partially in a drop in shot volume over the last three seasons. But it’s not totally out of the realm of possibility, and it will be worth tracking his progress as he approaches the top-10 all-time next season (Mario Lemieux is 10th all-time with 690 goals). After that, a run at Brett Hull (741 goals; fourth-all-time) and Jagr (766 goals; third all-time) is looming.