Dynasty fantasy football: Rookie draft order so far, pre-NFL Draft

Let’s look at the top 15

Let me begin by explaining my process. I have gone through three high-stakes startup dynasty leagues that have been drafting this past week (each pick gets a 12 hour clock) and have pulled out the rookies from the draft boards. Then I made an average of where they were drafted to create an overall order in which the rookies are currently being drafted. I find this information useful mainly because it shows us where generally-knowledgeable fantasy football players value this year’s crop of rookies, not in theory but in practice.

Let’s start with the first 15 rookies being selected in dynasty drafts, and a few thoughts on what seems most significant. Then we’ll do the same thing regarding the next 15 rookies on the list.

First 15:

1. Josh Jacobs
2. A.J. Brown
3. Hakeem Butler
4. N’Keal Harry
5. T.J. Hockenson
6. DK Metcalf
7. David Montgomery
8. Noah Fant
9. Miles Sanders
10. Darrell Henderson
11. Kelvin Harmon
12. Marquise Brown
13. Damien Harris
14. Rodney Anderson
15. Deebo Samuel

Points of Significance

• It was surprising to see Josh Jacobs go first in all three drafts. As he had not gone first in any rookie mock draft I’ve read, this was a shock. This speaks to how crucial three-down running backs have become in fantasy and how rare they are. While we don’t know where Jacobs will land yet, or whether he will indeed be a three-down back, he certainly has that potential by all accounts. If you want him in a startup, you will need to be ready to pounce early (he went in the fourth round on average), or in rookie drafts you likely won’t have a shot at him unless you have the first or second pick.
• Miles Sanders is rising in drafts fast. After his strong Combine performance, he has jumped about half-a-round into the mid-late first of rookie drafts (and Round 6 of startup drafts).
• Conversely, David Montgomery is falling, likely due to the lack of explosiveness he showed at the Combine, from the first few picks to near the end of the first round of rookie drafts (and about Round 8 of startup drafts).
• Damien Harris is ranked as the second-best back in this draft class, and so far he can be had for a late first/early second-round pick in rookie drafts, or a ninth-rounder in startups. That is a steal.