DraftKings MLB Picks July 3: Walker Buehler’s Taking Off!

DraftKings MLB daily notes:

Yu Darvish got knocked around a little by the Pirates earlier this year, but he has pitched much better on the road (3.59 ERA in eight starts). The strikeout totals are very tempting, but Darvish has allowed 18 homers this year. Josh Bell is getting one tonight. I really like Corey Dickerson and Colin Moran for the price as well.

Chris Archer has pitched better lately, but he has not gone more than five innings since June 11th. His ERA is much better at home, but trusting him against a team that is hitting .292 off of him seems foolish. Schwarber has the only homer against Chris Archer for the Cubs so far. Javy Baez and Anthony Rizzo have hit him well too. So has Jason Heyward for that matter.

I don’t know that there is anything wrong with Sale other than the Blue Jays just have his number. They are hitting .260 against him in 100 at bats with five homers and 14 runs. Nine of those have come this year alone, including four two starts ago. Randal Grichuk has homered twice off of Sale and is 6-12 lifetime, so lock him in. Maile, Teoscar Hernandez, and Smoak have taken him deep as well. And the 30% strikeout rate, while good, is still not worth paying nearly $12,000 for.

I feel as though an Orioles stack is pretty risky, but I do want some exposure here. Stanek has been lights out as the opener, but Austin Pruitt is coming in by the third inning, and he hasn’t been good at any level this year. I like Pedro Severino or Chance Sisco, Villar, and Dwight Smith Jr. the most.

Sonny Gray has had one good and one below average start against Milwaukee this year. He doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls or hard contact, but this is extreme hitter’s weather tonight. Yelich and Moose have both homered off of him before and are strong bets to do it again. Keston Hiura has a ton of potential for just $4,000.

Ariel Jurado has been pretty solid this year, including once against the Angels already this year. His recent performance has me mostly off of him, and the way the Angels are hitting over the last couple of weeks is concerning. Trout, Ohtani, and Kole Calhoun are all elite plays.

Wade Miley hasn’t been overly horrible in his career at Coors, but he hasn’t been good either. Trevor Story and Arenado are great plays, but I can take or leave every other Rockies bat with the prices where they are at. However, if Mark Reynolds plays, I love him as a value play.

The A’s are hitting .297 against Kyle Gibson and they just took it to Odorizzi last night. I want no part of Gibson here. Matt Olson has the only homer against Gibson so far, but Laureano, Khris Davis (if he plays), and Semien look really good since Gibson has reverse splits going on this year.

Yes, Tanner Anderson has been better at home, but realize that is a relative term. His ERA is still 4.82. There’s no way I trust him against the Twins. Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Jason Castro are my top targets here. I can’t argue with the power potential of Sano or the gap power of Buxton in this stadium either.

This Giants offense has teed off on Padres pitching all series, so I’m hesitant to take a chance with Quantrill. This is the cheap lefty stack that we’ve been waiting for all week! Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Alex Dickerson, and Mike Yastrzemski are all under $4,000. You can mix and match this to compliment any other stack or use it on its own against Quantrill.

Some of the luster has worn off of Merrill Kelly lately, but I don’t want a full blown Dodgers stack. I will definitely have some shares of Bellinger and Max Muncy. Probably some Alex Verdugo too, but Kelly isn’t bad enough to stack against hoping for a blowup.

The Cardinals hit Leake well when he was in Cincinnati to the tune of a .263 average with six homers and 18 runs in 114 at bats. Both Fowler and Goldy have homered twice against Leake. Yadi Molina and Kolten Wong have the others. Goldschmidt is one of my favorite value picks at just $3,500. Absurd!