DraftKings MLB Picks July 4: Milone to one odds

DraftKings MLB Main Slate Pitching Options:

Top Tier:

Matt Boyd ($10,600): Let me preface this by saying that Boyd is the best of a bad tier of pitchers priced as aces. Boyd has given up at least three runs in every start since June 1st. The strikeouts help, but his ceiling is not all that high when he’s giving up runs like that. However, he’s much safer than Berrios, who got hammered in his only career start in Oakland, and Castillo, who has been blistered by the Brewers not once, not even twice, but three times this year. Take Boyd and pray if paying up for a pitcher.

Yonny Chirinos ($8,700): It can be harrowing starting a pitcher against the Yankees, but Chirinos has already faced them three times this year and pitched reasonably well. Chirinos is safer than any of the high priced options besides maybe Boyd because of the strikeout upside. However, I think most will chase Yankee bats, but Chirinos has given up 2, 0, and 3 runs in those three appearances against the Yanks. If he gives up much, it wont be a lot.

Middle Tier:

Jordan Lyles ($7,800): The most encouraging thing from Lyles’ return from the IL last week was the 103 pitches he threw. Lyles hasn’t allowed less than three runs in a start since May 17th, but he did a number on the Cubs earlier this year, racking up 33.1 DraftKings points on them. The Cubs offense is going pretty well right now, so there is quite a bit of risk here. Lyles had a good second half of last year though, so there’s reason to think that he can channel that again.

Tom Milone ($7,600): We saw LeBlanc shut down the Cardinals earlier this series, and Milone is a very similar pitcher. We also saw Leake lock down the Cardinals last night. Milone hasn’t given up more than three runs in any outing since the Mariners started using an opener for him and he has lowered his ERA on the season to 2.95. So what if he isn’t racking up the strikeouts? We’re not paying for strikeouts. Milone is a strong threat for 20, which is more than I can say for a lot of pitchers on this slate.

Jose Quintana ($7,400): You never quite know what you’re getting with Quintana. He racked up a nice 38.8 DraftKings points against the Pirates earlier this year. We have seen our share of gems from Quintana this year, but for every one of those, there’s a eight runs in two innings implosion. However, PNC Park is a pitcher’s park and is hard on right handed power. That’s good enough to take a shot with Quintana today.

Bargain Pitchers:

Michael Wacha ($6,100): Wacha has only had one bad outing since his return to the rotation on June 10th. That was against the Mets. I can understand that. We can’t really use Wacha’s bad numbers on the season against him. He has only allowed three runs in four starts aside from that Mets game. The Mariners offense isn’t really scaring anyone right now, and his reverse splits actually work well against a lefty heavy Mariners team.

Reynaldo Lopez ($5,600): Let’s put this whole thing in perspective: Lopez has a 6.12 ERA this year. He has allowed only two earned runs to the Tigers in 12 innings, piling up 63.8 DraftKings points in those games. We may only be able to play Lopez against the Tigers, but as long as he keeps playing them on nights where we are in desperate need of value, I’m all for it!

My picks: Milone, Lopez; Milone, Boyd