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FanDuel MLB daily lineups July 17th: Early only & main slate

By Matt Rogers

FanDuel MLB: CLEVELAND, OHIO - JULY 09: Ketel Marte #4 of the Arizona Diamondbacks during the 2019 MLB All-Star Game at Progressive Field on July 09, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
FanDuel MLB: CLEVELAND, OHIO - JULY 09: Ketel Marte #4 of the Arizona Diamondbacks during the 2019 MLB All-Star Game at Progressive Field on July 09, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /
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FanDuel MLB: CINCINNATI, OH – JULY 03: Sonny Gray #54 of the Cincinnati Reds reacts after getting the final out in the eighth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park on July 3, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Reds won 3-0. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitching Early Only

Sometimes you shouldn’t over-think a smaller slate. The bodes well in most DFS sports, especially MLB and NHL. I tried to rack my brain, a bit, to discover a clever play for the Wednesday FanDuel MLB Early Only slate, but I kept coming back to the same play.

Here’s how I got there.

Daniel Ponce de Leon ($7,300) is the sexiest play in this slate. First of all, his name is awesome. But from a MLB DFS perspective, he’s also an attractive play at this price. Ponce doesn’t always pitch in a start outing, but his K-rate is still very good regardless of how he enters the game this season.

With a 32.5% strikeout rate, de Leon has the highest K-rate of all starting pitchers in this slate. Ponce also has an insanely low 0.82 WHIP. However, that screams for regression, especially if he continues to start for the Cardinals. Also, the Pirates match-up isn’t idea. Their offense has a 20.2% K-rate, the 4th lowest in baseball this season.

I’d consider Ponce, but I’m going to see if there’s a better, safer, play available first. Chris Archer ($8,200) has some eye-popping recent stats, including eight to ten K’s in four of his last six starts. However, Archer is also a model for inconsistent starting pitchers and I’m likely only using Chris for random GPP fliers. Still, keep that in mind if that’s the only route you’re taking today!

But, as I continue to scan the list of pitching options for the Early Only slate, I keep coming back to the most obvious play of the afternoon. He may be higher owned, but I’m hoping the match-up against the Cubs in Wrigley will scare off players.

Sonny Gray ($8,800) has also been piling up strikeouts on a consistent basis over the last month. However, unlike Archer, Gray has been more consistently good, giving up only three total runs in his last three starts, against the Rockies in Coors Field, the Brewers, and…the Cubs!

That’s two wins and three quality starts in three straight games against dangerous offensive teams. Sonny’s 28.1% K-rate this season also happens to be the second highest, and oh by the way, the Cubs offense has a shockingly high 23.5% K-rate, 12th highest in baseball this season. And, frankly, his salary isn’t that expensive.

Gray is my favorite play for the Early Only slate on Wednesday.