FanDuel MLB daily lineups July 18th: Early only & main slate

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitching Early Only

There may only be four games, eight teams, in the Early Only slate. But, unlikely yesterday there are some big names starting on the mound this afternoon. Aaron Nola ($10,000) is your most expensive pitcher, and Chris Sale ($9,700) is arguably the most popular pitcher in this slate.

I’m struggling to pay up for either Nola or Sale. I get that Aaron is hot right no. He has a quality start in each of his last five outings. But, three of those outings were against the Mets or Marlins. That said, he also fanned nine red-hot Nats hitters and eight hot Braves betters. So, it’s fairly safe to say he’s pitching very well right now.

That may be the case, but he has a tough task against the Dodgers in hot conditions, in a hitters ballpark. I am nervous about getting another 40 to 50 FanDuel MLB points from Nola against the Dodgers this afternoon. And, I’d rather not have to give up $10K for a nervous play at SP. He’s a decent consideration in cash games, if you don’t have a better option.

In theory, Sale could be your better option. But, Chris has been incredibly inconsistent this season, including a five earned run 5.2 inning pitched outing against the very Blue Jays he’s facing today. Yes, that game was in Toronto and this one is in Boston. But, the risk is still there.

Instead, I’m more inclined to do what I haven’t done all season. I’m likely picking a Marlins starting pitcher for the second time in three days. What is wrong with me?

Well, it doesn’t hurt that the Marlins starting pitchers are facing the Padres on their home field. Yes, the Padres have a decent 92 wRC+, a sign they’re just slightly below mediocre in offense. But, their 26.0% K-rate is the worst in baseball.

Fortunately for us, Caleb Smith ($8,500) isn’t very expensive and also happens to have a 30.5% strikeout rate, the third highest of this slate and higher than Nola’s 26.7% rate. Smith also has a quality start and win in each of his last two games, including a tough one in Atlanta against the Braves.

We have a very good shot at another QS from Caleb Thursday afternoon. We also have a decent shot at a win, something we’ll look at with offensive stacks. And, it’s pretty likely Smith will have around six to eight strikeouts. That puts us in a decent spot for 40 to 50 FanDuel MLB points while giving up $1.5K less in FanDuel MLB salary than for Nola. I’m sold. Marlins, again, it is!