Manny Pacquiao vs. Keith Thurman: Preview and prediction

Manny Pacquiao is 40 years old and shouldn’t be the favorite against Keith Thurman, but he is. Who has the best chance of being the victor?

Manny Pacquiao (61-7-2, 39 KOs) fights Keith Thurman (29-0, 22 KOs) for the WBA welterweight title Saturday, July 20. There are numerous reasons to pick Thurman over Pacquiao with age being the primary factor. However, Pacquiao’s name and body of work resonate with fight fans and experts alike.

Pacquiao has come a long way since his first fight. He debuted in 1995 in his home country of the Philippines. He weighed 106 pounds back then. Pacquiao built a career since that day that no one could have dreamed of.

During Pacquiao’s entire 19-year career, he has fought a total of 70 bouts and accumulated 474 rounds of professional experience. If experience were the only measurable that decided the outcome of a fight, then Pacquiao would be the easy pick over Thurman. Thurman has 30 fights under his belt and 148 rounds of professional experience.

Longevity becomes a problem for a boxer when they approach the end of their career. Pacquiao is near the conclusion of his illustrious journey, but it’s not over yet.

There’s a lot of wear and tear on Pacquiao. He’s 40 years old, and there are very few fighters that can competitively compete at that age and beyond. Against Adrien Broner and Lucas Matthysse in his last two contests, Pacquiao proved that he still has enough left in the tank to be a world champion.

Thurman would have been the clear favorite in 2017, but injuries and inactivity plagued him. He put in some rounds against Josesito Lopez in January, but he looked far from his best form. You can chalk it up to ring rust, but Thurman can’t afford to be rusty against Pacquiao. Even at 40, he’s still fast and dangerous.

When betting lines opened, Thurman was the slight betting favorite according to the Sportsbook Review. That’s changed since with most oddsmakers moving Pacquiao ahead as a slight favorite. Most experts are split in trying to predict a winner.

FanSided is picking Pacquiao to win a close decision over Thurman. Thurman has a 2-inch height and reach advantage over Pacquiao, which will make it difficult for Pacquiao to work inside. Pacquiao’s southpaw stance should help him find angles and partially nullify Thurman’s reach.

Thurman’s last performance against Lopez lingers. A 40-year-old Pacquiao is an immensely harder puzzle to solve than Lopez.  Thurman is young and skilled, but Pacquiao is still the quicker more intelligent fighter. He should beat Thurman with strategy. He’ll try to make this a boxing match instead of a grueling fight.

Pacquiao vs. Thurman is an intriguing bout that will be won with the mind and not necessarily with the harder punch. You can watch Pacquiao vs. Thurman on FOX pay-per-view for $74.99. You can order the bout through them online and stream it through the FOX app. It’s also available for order through most cable providers.