FanDuel MLB DFS Breakdown – 7/20: Kershaw’s Going Fishing
By Joe Metz
FanDuel MLB – Top Pitchers
Top Play: Clayton Kershaw | LAD | $10,800
At first glance, it looks like it may be hard to choose between Kershaw and Castillo as the top stud tonight, but with Kershaw being the -319 favorite with an IRT of 3.0 runs for MIA, it solidifies him as my top option.
He’s been shaky at times this season but overall has posted a 3.31 xFIP, 23.5% strikeout rate, and an elite 52.7% ground-ball rate. As you can see, he isn’t the elite strikeout pitcher he once was, but he’s adjusted his approach and has kept the ball on the ground at an elite rate.
The Marlins are always the scapegoat when choosing DFS pitchers and while they tend to be peskier against LHP (due to rolling out 8 RHH), their projected lineup still only has a 0.141 ISO against lefties and a 0.319 wOBA.
On top of that, they struggle mightily against the slider, Kershaw’s signature pitch, as only Miguel Rojas has a wOBA above 0.300 against the SL while only he and Garrett Cooper have a whiff rate of 20% or below.
Temper your expectations with Kershaw’s strikeout total here, but it’s a realistic bet to expect 6-7 Ks and no other pitcher on the slate has a higher likelihood of recording a quality start and a win – two huge bonuses on FanDuel.
Value Play: Griffin Canning | LAA | $6,900
I wouldn’t recommend dipping below the Kershaw/Castillo/Berrios trio tonight as the value pitching is rather ugly, but Griffin Canning has the upside to support a case in GPPs at his price tag.
While Canning has allowed a decent amount of hard-contact (40.1%), he’s posted an elite 25.3% strikeout rate paired with a 14.0% whiff rate, giving him immense strikeout upside against a Mariners team that strikes out at a 23.8% clip against righties, paired with a pedestrian 0.326 team wOBA.
On top of that, the Mariners are projected to roll out 6 lefties. One of Cannings most dominant pitches against lefties happens to be his changeup and the Mariners only have two players (Daniel Vogelbach and Kyle Seager) with wOBAs over 0.300 against the pitch.
Honorable Mention(s): Luis Castillo, Jose Berrios