DraftKings MLB picks July 26: Here Urqidy Urquidy

DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Hyun-Jin Ryu ($11,200): Ryu hasn’t been quite as dominant on the road, but he still has a nice 2.92 ERA in nine road starts. Ryu dominated the Nats in L.A., holding them to just one hit in eight innings with nine strikeouts. That was good for 38.8 DraftKings points. I think we can expect a little under that, but even if Ryu gets ten less (his season average for road game vs. home games), we’re still looking at 28.8 DraftKings points. That’s a good return. Oh, and the Nats are hitting just .192 against Ryu in 73 at bats with 17 strikeouts and just one solo homer. Good luck Washington. You’ll need it.

Zack Greinke ($10,500): It’s been all or nothing for Greinke lately. He has given up zero runs in six of his last ten starts, but has given up four or more in three of those other four. I would lean more towards a zero outing in Miami, but the Marlins are hitting .247 with seven homers and 20 runs in 170 at bats. The good news is that most of those stats come from four players, none of whom are hitting well right now and almost all of that came in their primes. Greinke may be a safer, albeit less dominant, alternative to Ryu.

Michael Pineda ($9,000): Pineda has quietly put together a solid run. He has only allowed more than three runs once in his last ten starts, and boasts a solid 3.47 ERA in that stretch. He also doesn’t have that egregious home/road split that many of his teammates have. Pineda put up 27.9 DraftKings points on the Sox earlier this year and they are only hitting .244 with three runs in 41 at bats with 13 strikeouts. There is plenty to like about Pineda here.

Middle Tier:

Jeff Samardzija ($8,300): I usually make it a point to not play Shark, but I’m finally tempted. Very tempted. Shark has 36.8 DraftKings points in two starts against the Padres this year. San Diego is only hitting .231 with three homers and 11 runs in 134 at bats with 25 strikeouts. The strikeout total is still a bit low this year, so I’m not all in on this, but I can get behind using him tonight.

Ryan Yarbrough ($8,000): I always balk when paying this much for a long reliever, but Yarbrough has dominated in his last two outings. He has allowed just one run and four hits in 12.1 innings. In fact, the last time Yarbrough gave up more than one run was back on June 13th. Yarbrough picked up 23 DraftKings points on the Jays earlier this year. This Toronto lineup is hitting just .121 in 33 at bats with a homer and seven strikeouts. On top of that, Yarbrough has a 2.11 ERA on the road this year. He looks to be worth that $8k tag tonight.

Jack Flaherty ($7,900): Flaherty is money at home. He has a 3.22 ERA in ten home starts this year. The issue here is the offense he is facing. Flaherty has allowed just two runs in his last three starts combined. We all saw what Flaherty is capable of last year. He is starting to regain that form in 2019. I do have some real concerns about using him against Houston, even though the Astros will be without the DH.

Griffin Canning ($7,200): What you have here is a great chance for good numbers at a low price. Canning stumbled into July, but was solid against Seattle his last time out. His first outing against the Orioles was also not a good one, but it was also in Baltimore. Canning has been better at home. The Orioles still strike out a ton. For the price Canning looks like a pretty low risk option.

Bargain Pitchers:

Jake Arrieta ($6,500): Arrieta looked good in his start against the Braves earlier this year, picking up 21.5 DraftKings points in six innings. He has also allowed just two earned runs in his last two starts. On top of that, Arrieta’s ERA is better at home. I don’t think this is a great matchup, but Arrieta is cheap. Cheap enough to consider looking at all of the things in his favor right now.

Dario Agrazal ($6,000): Agrazal has been nothing special, but he has not given up more than two runs in any of his five starts. He has also gone six innings in four straight starts. Those are quality innings whether Agrazal is racking up points or not. The 6.15 xFIP is scary and so is the lack of strikeouts. However, for this price, Agrazal is a solid option.

Jose Urquidy ($5,000): The only question is: Is Urquidy the worst pitcher on the slate? I don’t think so. That alone makes him worth a look at the lowest price. He locked down the Rangers in his best start thus far in his last outing. The Cardinals hammered Pittsburgh pitching. Can they do the same to Houston? While possible, I wouldn’t bet on it. Urquidy is a pretty solid option here. The Angels are the only team that really hit him hard.

My picks: Pineda, Shark; Yarbrough, Flaherty; Ryu, Urquidy; Yarbrough, Urquidy