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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: July 26 – I say Pineda, you say Pinata?

By Brian Tulloch

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - JULY 16: Michael Pineda #35 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the New York Mets during the interleague game on July 16, 2019 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Mets defeated the Twins 3-2. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - JULY 16: Michael Pineda #35 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the New York Mets during the interleague game on July 16, 2019 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Mets defeated the Twins 3-2. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /
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MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JULY 16: Michael Pineda #35 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the New York Mets during the interleague game on July 16, 2019 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Mets defeated the Twins 3-2. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Friday Pitching Breakdown:

In looking over this loaded Friday MLB DFS slate, we have warm temperatures, clear weather and 8 teams and counting with 5+ IRT’s. Interestingly enough we also have two arms with 30% plus K rates – that also happen to be two of the cheaper arms on the slate in Jose Urquidy and Asher Wojciechowski.

All that said, my gut reaction here tonight is that pitching likely won’t win you the slate but I absolutely think it can lose it for you. We do not have the Cole/deGrom/Sale type arms that are likely to post a slate breaking scores and while that may make dropping down to someone like Urquidy a popular route, I actually think paying up for, gulp, the “safety” of the top-tier arms is a viable route this evening.

Zack Greinke ($20.3K) is the third most expensive arm on FantasyDraft, as he gets a massive ballpark boost heading from Chase Field to Marlins Park here tonight. Greinke has the name value of a top-tier arm but the stats say he his more of a solid arm at this point in his career with a 24% K rate and 10% swinging-strike rate in 2019.

Here is what you get with Greinke – an arm that has gone at least 7 innings in 5 of his last 7 starts while putting up 20+ fantasy points in 5 of his last 8 trips to the mound. Greinke gets arguably one of the best match-ups in baseball right now against the Marlins, which has seen 4 of the last 5 starters to take the hill against Miami put up 30+ fantasy points including studs like Clayton Kershaw and well, not-studs like Ivan Nova and Reynaldo Lopez.

In two of his last three starts, Greinke has punched out 9 batters against the Brewers and Rockies and after seeing all of Kershaw, Buehler, and Lopez go for double-digit K’s in the last week against Miami, there is a “floor” here for Greinke that I feel relatively sure about building around.

Michael Pineda ($17.7K) sees Greinke’s match-up against the Marlins, looks at the opposing White Sox and says “Hold My Beer.” The White Sox strike out at a 27.5% clip over the last month which is the second-highest mark in baseball and much like the Marlins has been the high-ceiling spot for opposing pitchers of all skill levels.

In the last week, 3 of the last 5 arms to start against the White Sox have gone for 30+ fantasy points including Zach Gallen, Caleb Smith, and Blake Snell, and we saw Jose Berrios excel in this spot last night with 7 IP, 8 K’s and 28 FPTS. In fact, over the last 14 games, 10 of the 14 SP’s have put up 20+ fantasy point outings including one 40+ point outing from the one and only Glenn Sparkman.

So while paying up for pitching has seemingly back-fired more often than not this season, the argument tonight is very simple for why a Greinke/Pineda pairing makes sense and it has everything to do with targeting their opposition.

Seven of the last ten starting pitchers to play against the Marlins and White Sox have put up 30+ fantasy points. SEVEN. It may not be statistically accurate to say that Greinke and Pineda have a 70% chance of getting to that ceiling, but the point is that they seem to be in spots where the likelihood of those kinds of performances is more than in any other match-up.