DraftKings MLB picks July 29: East Coast or West Coast aces?

DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Patrick Corbin ($10,800): Corbin’s numbers against the Braves aren’t all that good, but his home numbers are outstanding this year. Corbin is 5-1 with a 1.68 ERA in ten home starts this year. He has held his own against the Braves earlier this year, but the 11.3 DraftKings points left a lot to be desired. That start was in Atlanta. I’m expecting better here due to the nice home numbers.

Caleb Smith ($10,600): This price may chase me off, but Smith’s home splits at least make him worth considering. Smith is 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA in seven home starts with 51 strikeouts in just 40.1 innings. Arizona can hit lefties, but Smith has looked as dominant as he was before landing on the IL since the Break. I’ll roll him at home if I need the $200 elsewhere. Otherwise, I don’t think Smith outscores Corbin by enough to justify the fade.

Chris Paddack ($10,200): We certainly did get lucky with aces for a half slate. Paddack has a 2.36 ERA in seven home starts. The only mild concern here is the Padres yanking Paddack after five if he has a big lead. They are interested in limiting his innings when they can, and this seems like a prime spot. However, Paddack can do plenty of damage against this free swinging squad even if he only gets five frames.

Middle Tier:

Sonny Gray ($9,400): The Pirates are only hitting .243 with two homers and seven runs in 74 at bats with 16 strikeouts. Those are pretty solid numbers. What makes Gray one of the better plays of the night is his 47.5 DraftKings points in three starts against the Pirates this year. Gray has a 1.84 ERA since the All Star Break, and Pittsburgh just isn’t hitting right now. The numbers for Gray are strong across the board, so I have no problem moving down tonight.

Brad Keller ($8,400): Keller’s price looks high, but he has racked up 76.1 DraftKings points in three starts since the Break. One of those was in Atlanta! Keller was rocked by the Jays in Toronto earlier this year, but given his strong stretch and his 3.29 home ERA, Keller is a very solid play in the middle tier tonight. If you can afford him with one of the top three, that’s an avenue worth taking if playing multiple lineups.

Bargain Pitchers:

Jaime Barria ($7,200): If you want to use Barria, use him at home. He has a 2.04 ERA in 17.2 home innings. The ERA balloons to 10.62 on the road. And that’s after he handled the crosstown Dodgers in Chavez Ravine last week. Barria is a really strong play here against an awful Detroit lineup. They aren’t as bad as Zimmerman on the mound, but they’re trying.

Kenta Maeda ($6,800): Maeda isn’t usually a guy I use, especially on the road. So why am I jumping on at Coors of all places? Past stats, my friends! Maeda has a 3.12 ERA in 10 career Coors Field appearances, and has only lost one of those games. Colorado is hitting a decent .247 against Maeda with six homers and 13 runs, but that’s over 154 at bats. The 52 strikeouts helps as well. You could do much worse at the bottom of tonight’s pitching barrel.

Jon Gray ($6,600): What? BOTH Coors pitchers made the cut? Yes they did! Yes, it’s about a half slate, but Gray has made a living of not getting lit up in thin air. His 4.97 ERA in threes starts against the Dodgers doesn’t inspire confidence, but the Dodgers visited Coors exactly one month ago today with Gray starting. They picked up only three runs (two earned). Gray picked up 25.6 DraftKings points in the win. Gray did get blasted in Chavez Ravine though.

My picks: Paddack, Barria; Corbin, Barria; Barria, Maeda; Keller, Barria