Early DraftKings MLB picks July 31: Bank on Castillo

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DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

The regression has happened for Luis Castillo, but it doesn’t look like regression does for other pitchers. He has still only had one bad outing, and it certainly wasn’t against the Pirates. Pittsburgh has only picked up four runs (two earned) in 11 innings with 12 strikeouts. Add in Castillo’s 2.28 home ERA, and you have the unquestioned ace of the early slate.

Now he needs a companion. Mike Soroka’s 1.19 ERA in ten road starts is really tempting, especially with the affordable price. He was cruising in his first outing in Washington this year when the rains washed out his day after just two innings. Another concern is that Soroka hasn’t thrown more than 88 pitches since the break despite pitching well. The Braves are obviously cutting his innings in anticipation of a playoff run. I don’t disagree, but that makes it hard to use Soroka for DFS purposes.

Zack Greinke had a 8.82 ERA in four old Yankee Stadium starts. In his one start in the new digs, Greinke gave up seven runs in two innings. No freaking way I’m playing him. Not even if you paid me.

The luck wore off of Gargamel’s Cat last week, so I’m ignoring him in Cincy as well. Anibal Sanchez has bad numbers against the Braves. Tanaka has bad numbers against Arizona (.329, four homers, ten runs in 85 at bats), but a 3.23 ERA at home. The price on Tanaka is also way down since he was bludgeoned by Boston again.

The interesting matchup here is Jake Junis against a weaker Blue Jays offense and youngster Jacob Waguespack on the other side against a scuffling Royals offense. Check out the opponents though. The numbers are very similar, but Waguespack’s five appearances are two against Boston, two against Tampa, and Detroit. He put up 14 DraftKings points on Detroit, so I can see using Waguespack for value.

For me, it comes down to Waguespack and Tanaka to pair with Castillo. I will likely run with one of each. With Waguespack, you have $4,162 to spend on each of the eight hitters. That dwindles to an even $4,000 if you use Tanaka.