MLB DFS Pitching Gems August 11: It’s JV time

MLB DFS Pitching Plays

Justin Verlander – Well, this years inevitable CY Young winner, is back in action this Sunday against one of the worst teams in Baseball. Verlander has a 3.32 xFIP, 34.1% K rate, 34.8% GB rate, and 40.4% HC. Baltimore has a 23% K rate to RHP, with 43.5% GB, and 35% HC.

All very mediocre numbers, especially when we account for Justin’s massive 37% K rate against LHH, where he will see at least six of them. Yes JV does give up more FB than you would want out of a stud pitcher, but his strikeout upside makes that very easy to overlook.

Pitch Mix  – I really enjoy looking at Verlander’s pitch mix. He uses three pitches, fastball, slider, and curve. Very traditional style of pitching, but he has refined these pitches in a way that makes him extremely difficult to hit. Most of the year, his fastball has been over 30% whiffs, slider over 40%, and the curve right around 30%.

However, last game that curve reached a massive 80% whiff rate. That is very scary to think of, and is obviously an outlier. That same curve has been getting well over 50% GB as well, with the slider siting around 35-45% on the year. The velocity is slightly down on his fastball, but nothing significant enough to be concerned. The vertical movement is still above 11 inches on the fastball, with solid movement on the breaking pitches. I saw Baltimore struggling with the curve of Aaron Sanchez yesterday, that is a very bad sign when going up against JV, who is light years ahead of Sanchez in regards to talent.