NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 1

NFL DFS: Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Green Bay Packers

The storyline surrounding the Packers’ offseason has been centered around new head coach Matt LaFleur and what his offense will look like with a healthy Aaron Rodgers. Amidst shallow reports of a rocky relationship, the outlook here has to be exciting given the fact that LaFleur helped Matt Ryan win MVP in 2016 and Robert Griffin win OROY in 2012.

The Bears are a stout test to kick off their first full season together, but a hobbled Rodgers led an exciting comeback last season and who’s to say he won’t dominate again? If this game were on the main slate, I wouldn’t likely have any Rodgers exposure, but given the fact that we have a Showdown slate, Rodgers may have the most upside on the slate.

Pairing him with Davante Adams is a wise choice, as the receiver proved to be matchup-proof last season. It’s hard to say who will have a higher impact between Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but the Bears were more attackable through the air than on the ground, making both usable players to differentiate your showdown lineup in a GPP. If you really want to dive deep on a flyer, Jake Kumerow finally put in a healthy preseason and was an expected bright spot. He has high praise from Rodgers and could see meaningful time on the field after Equanimeous St. Brown was placed on the IR.

Aaron Jones is poised for a massive season, but it’s hard to endorse him against a defense that allowed the least amount of fantasy points to the running back position and only 3 rushing touchdowns on the season last year.

GPP Plays (only GPP on a showdown slate): Rodgers, Adams, Allison, Kumerow (deep flyer for value)

Chicago Bears

Interestingly enough, I have more interest in some of the players on the Bears side of the ball here than the Packers for two reasons; the lesser-caliber of the Packers defense compared to the Bears, and the chance for negative game-script should Aaron Rodgers come out firing and cruise to an early lead.

Mitch Trubisky is less expensive than you may expect for a quarterback and the upside that he provides on the ground is a massive advantage on a showdown slate. He rushed for a touchdown last season against the Packers and I expect him to use his wheels again. He also has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, giving him a decent amount of upside in the passing game. Of those weapons, Tarik Cohen and Allen Robinson may be in the best position to succeed. Robinson really came around at the tail-end of last season, piling up 16 catches on 21 targets with 228 receiving yards over his final two games. Cohen, on the other hand, is still expected to be the primary change-of-pace back in Chicago and has a ton of big-play potential, but the addition of a rookie running back caps his ceiling a bit.

Rookie running back David Montgomery is expected to be a bell-cow back in Chicago and after the Packers defense allowed 13 rushing touchdowns last season, he finds himself in a good position to kick his career off on a high note.

GPP Plays: Trubisky, Robinson, Montgomery