MLB DFS picks and pivots September 12: Stacking in Seattle

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HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 29: Fans watch as Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros throws a bullpen session before the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Minute Maid Park on August 29, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Pitching breakdown

We have a smaller 7 game MLB DFS Main Slate tonight on FantasyDraft and once again I have to give them credit, as they have pushed tonight’s GPP’s even larger than each of the previous three nights as they are filling consistently before lock. Tonight as an example, the $25 GPP on FantasyDraft is 800 people which is double the size of the same tournament on Monday of this week – keep it going guys.

Tonight’s seven gamer is really tricky for a few reasons – first, we have weather in a handful of stadiums with rain that could impact games in Baltimore, Minnesota and Philadelphia. Secondly, we have late-season baseball where teams like the Dodgers have clinched and teams like the Astros are coasting towards the playoffs and routinely pulling their regulars early.

Perfect example – Rich Hill ($20.3K) is the second-highest priced arm on the slate against Baltimore but is expected to be limited in his first start off the DL after throwing only 30 pitches in a simulated game. With no reason to push Hill, there is also no reason to pay a premium for what amounts to a Spring Training warm-up.

Justin Verlander ($24.9K) is the clear top dog on this short slate by any and every measure, with a slate leading 35% K rate and 16% swinging-strike rate. Now, the Astros are likely not going to push their co-ace with their eyes set on a World Series, but Verlander still threw 102 pitches last time out and even at this price point, has the ability to dominate any lineup if throws a similar number of pitches.

While Houston has a comfortable division lead, they are just .5 GB of the Yankees for the top spot in the AL and that quest for home-field advantage is something that should keep Verlander deep into this game here tonight.

Verlander is the clear SP1 on this slate and frankly on with a slate this small, I think you simply have to find a way to force him in with no viable pivots that have anywhere near his upside.

Patrick Corbin ($20.2K) is the potential pivot, but much like last night, I think you can make a strong argument to go with an SP 1-2 punch and pay up for both JV and Corbin.

When healthy, the Twins line-up can be death to LHP as their .236 ISO against lefties this season leads all of baseball. The issue is, will they be at full strength here tonight? With guys like Kepler, Sano, Cron and Marwin all banged up, Corbin could see a similarly watered-down lineup as Strasburg faced last night. Over the last month, while Verlander leads the league with a 37% K rate, Corbin is the second-best mark of the arms on this slate with a 29% K rate which ranks 17th in the league during that time.

Much like last night wit Strasburg, this is NOT the optimal match-up for Corbin but I think even more so than Wednesday, this slate dictates your pitching options and if you opt to balk at the asking price for Corbin, you are going into hold your nose and hope territory.

Go ahead and pivot down – who are you going with? Brendan McKay will get a start against Texas but was pulled after just 60 pitches in is his last start. You want to roll Dylan Bundy against the Dodgers or Homer Bailey against the Astros?

Corbin gives you one thing that this late in the season is immensely valuable – security. The Nationals are in the middle of a wild card race that is getting tighter by the day and despite the tough match-up, I will take the top-tier arms as my building block any time I can make it work.