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EPL DFS breakdown – Saturday, September 14

By Vince Dray

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - APRIL 17: Manchester City's Sergio Aguero celebrates scoring his side's fourth goal with team-mates David Silva (left), Kevin De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva during the UEFA Champions League Quarter Final second leg match between Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur at at Etihad Stadium on April 17, 2019 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Rich Linley - CameraSport via Getty Images)
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - APRIL 17: Manchester City's Sergio Aguero celebrates scoring his side's fourth goal with team-mates David Silva (left), Kevin De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva during the UEFA Champions League Quarter Final second leg match between Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur at at Etihad Stadium on April 17, 2019 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Rich Linley - CameraSport via Getty Images) /
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MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – AUGUST 31: Kevin De Bruyne of Manchester City celebrates after scoring a goal to make it 1-0 during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Brighton & Hove Albion at Etihad Stadium on August 31, 2019 in Manchester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images)
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – AUGUST 31: Kevin De Bruyne of Manchester City celebrates after scoring a goal to make it 1-0 during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Brighton & Hove Albion at Etihad Stadium on August 31, 2019 in Manchester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images) /

EPL DFS Top-Tier Forwards/Midfielders

Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City @ Norwich, $21) – No, that’s not a typo.  FanDuel changed the scoring system slightly from only even-numbered tiers to every $1 increment which seems like a smart idea.  Like I mentioned above, Manchester City are massive favorites in a game with a tasty goal total, so you’re going to want City exposure.  KDB has been his 2017-18 self so far this year after an off year last season.  He has at least one assist in each of the four games so far and he’s averaging 4.0 chances created per game.  Norwich are a weak defensive team, so although City is on the road, they should roll easily on Saturday.

Sergio Aguero ($24) has been stellar this season having scored in every game, but his productivity has to drop at some point, and I feel better about relying on KDB’s significantly safer floor for $3 savings.  Not to mention that Gabriel Jesus ($18) could be making his return from injury on Saturday which could limit Aguero to less than a full 90 minutes.  KDB can drop 30+ fantasy point games even in the toughest matchups and he will get a big plus matchup this week.  I think Raheem Sterling ($22) is a good way to spend on City exposure in GPPs.  People will flock to Aguero and de Bruyne for safety especially if they see Sterling’s dud game against Brighton.

Harry Kane (Crystal Palace @ Tottenham, $24) – One thing I’m trying out on my EPL DFS Breakdown this season is not only writing about plays I like but also plays were I make a case for fading.  At first glance, Kane looks like a recommended play as he has the best odds to score on the entire slate.  However, I’m not interested in Kane this week.  For starters, you can get Aguero (also great odds to score) for the same price in a better matchup.  Despite a bottom-half finish last year, Palace didn’t give up many goals.  This year they’ve only given up two in four games (they held Aston Villa and Everton scoreless).  Palace generally don’t concede 3-4 goals in a game, so Kane’s upside is limited.  His floor is also almost as low as it gets.  He relies almost exclusively on goals and shots on goal (the latter of which is down through the first four games).  If he can’t score, he will turn in a single digit outing.  And even if he does score, you can find a cheaper and lower-owned player to get you 20-25 points.

That player might be Christian Eriksen ($18) or Erik Lamela who I actually do like this week.  If Eriksen sits, I give a big bump to Lamela for that price.  Through peripherals and defensive stats, they have a significantly higher floor than Kane.  They are also both +200 to score which is still solid odds.  If you’re a Tottenham believer on Saturday, take one of them instead of Kane.

Jamie Vardy (Leicester @ Manchester United, $18) – Normally I wouldn’t target opposing forwards at Old Trafford, but we all know about Vardy’s ability to score against big 6 teams.  He scored there last year and is coming into this game in great form with three goals in his last two games.  Vardy doesn’t collect peripherals at a very high rate, but if you play him, you’re just looking for that goal.  Vegas has him at +150 to score.  I don’t trust United’s defense as they only have one shutout this season (in the first game), so I am absolutely willing to test Vardy in GPPs where he hardly has any ownership on full slates.  On the United side, Marcus Rashford ($20) has the best odds to score (+135) in the game, and although $20 is slightly steep, I would be okay rostering him in GPPs especially with his PK duties.

Ashley Barnes (Burnley @ Brighton, $19) – While I feel good about Vardy and Rashford in GPP lobbies, I feel equally good about Barnes in cash games.  Barnes had one of the hottest starts to this season with four goals in three games (35.5 fantasy points on average) against some quality opponents.  He dropped a goose egg against Liverpool, so hopefully, that keeps people off him this weekend.  I don’t love that Barnes is playing on the road, but Bright have conceded seven goals already this year and his +240 odds to score seem a touch low in my mind.  Barnes has multiple shots on goal in all games except against Liverpool so his floor is decent, and he can get you a good 30+ fantasy points at low ownership if he can find the net.