EPL DFS breakdown – Saturday 9/21/2019

EPL DFS – Top-Tier Forwards/Midfielders

Sergio Aguero (Watford @ Manchester City, $23) – You all knew this was coming as soon as you saw what large favorites Manchester City are on Saturday.  Aguero is scoring at a historic rate right now right seven goals in five EPL games.  He has the best odds to score on this entire slate, and the matchup is great.  Watford still sits in last place as they have not won a game yet and they’re giving up 2.0 goals per game.  With his high price, he somewhat limits your ability to get other City stars and maximize your City exposure.  However, Aguero is still a top-notch play on this slate and every slate until he cools off.  Raheem Sterling ($22) is slightly cheaper, but still has great odds to score at -175.  He’s more of a GPP play in my mind.

Kevin de Bruyne (Watford @ Manchester City, $20) – I’m going to write up more City attackers here to emphasize the fact that it’s a good strategy to maximize your exposure to them, especially in cash games.  KDB only has one goal this year, but I’m more after a ceiling game from him with peripherals.  I said the same thing last week, but he was rested for their UCL game.  City played poorly last weekend at Norwich, and they sit a full five points behind Liverpool at the top of the table already, so they’ll be anxious to right the ship in this game.  KDB should create plenty of chances today and his odds of adding an assist are good.  Vegas set the over/under for this game-high for a reason.  He’s a great option to pair with Aguero/Sterling.

If you need the save a few bucks, Riyad Mahrez ($17) is available for a great price.  Like KDB, he did not start the game last weekend against Norwich.  He actually only has two EPL starts this year and he went for 30+ points both times.  He played a great game against Shakhtar that included a goal and an assist.  He’s another great secondary City option.

After writing up four Manchester City attackers to start, I owe you some other top tier attacking options who don’t wear blue.  One such option is Teemu Pukki ($19).  If you weren’t familiar with this name at the beginning of the season, you should be now because he has six goals in five EPL games.  I’m a little wary of this pick especially with several City guys in the same price range.  Burnley is not a super tough matchup by any means as they only have one clean sheet this season and are allowing more than one goal per game.  I’m more worried about Pukki’s ownership being inflated with his recent play and the fact that Norwich is playing on the road.  Of his six goals, Pukki has only scored one of them on the road.  He does have the highest odds to score (EVEN) of any outside City though.  He’s a GPP only play for me.

You could play Richarlison ($20) if you want to limit your City exposure if you think they’re going to flop.  He has the best odds to score in that game and he’s playing at home against a Sheffield defense that hasn’t kept a clean sheet on the road this season.  Richarlison is a streaky player and he’s hot right now with 41.75 fantasy points on average over his last two games.  Again, I’d prefer to just eat the City chalk on Saturday, but Richarlison is there for anyone who doesn’t like that chalky taste.