MLB DFS picks and pivots: Monday, September 23

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 20: Steven Matz #32 of the New York Mets in action against the Cleveland Indians at Citi Field on August 20, 2019 in New York City. The Mets defeated the Indians 9-2. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Monday Pitching Breakdown

We have a small five-game slate here on Monday Night and while the player pool may be small, outside of the Orioles-Jays game, the other four all have postseason implications which makes this a far more playable late-season MLB DFS season.

The very first pitcher that stood out to me when I opened this slate was Steven Matz ($14.6K) who is the 6th highest priced arm of the 10 available which when you consider his recent form, his match-up against the Marlins and the fact he is pitching at home, makes him an easy plug and play pitcher.

In five of his last six starts at Citi Field, Matz has gone for 20+ fantasy points which include an outing on August 7th where he racked up 24 fantasy points against this same Marlins team while striking out 7 batters. Matz has had significant splits at home this year, which was a big reason the Mets flip-flopped his spot on Sunday with Marcus Stroman against the Reds as Matz has 26% K rate at home versus a 19% rate on the road and he sees his HR/9 rate plummet from 2.7 all the way down to 0.7.

With the Mets needing length from their starters with every game now being a must-win, Matz will step to the mound checking nearly all the boxes as he is a starter with 100+ pitch count likely, as a large home favorite against a team with a low Vegas IRT. For cash games and GPP’s, he becomes the SP2 building block.

The question at SP1 really comes down to whether you pay up for Patrick Corbin or down to Adam Wainwright. Corbin at $23.2K is an aggressive ask but this is an elite K arm, the best on the slate and a top 10 arm over the last month as he has sported a 31% K rate. In his preview two meetings with this same Philly team he faces at home on Monday, Corbin has struck out 8 and 10 batters and has put up 22 and 29 fantasy points. In fact, Corbin has gone for 20+ fantasy points in 9 of his last 11 starts and represents the top raw points arm, although at the price he may not be the best use of our salary.

Adam Wainwright ($16.3K) has been simply phenomenal down the stretch for the Cardinals, with 4 straight starts of 6+ IP, 19+ fantasy points and 1 or fewer ER’s. As good as Waino has been, the one concern I do have is the lack of K’s as he has put up an 11% or lower K rate in 3 of those 4 outings so I do worry about the lack of upside by plugging him in.

My take is simple – Matz is a lock and load for me and the decision of Corbin or Wainwright will come down to the stacks and the hitter pricing as I build lineups Monday. Corbin feels over-priced but he also has K upside that the other arms on this slate cannot match and as long as we have find a punt value or two, it may be easy enough to fit him in considering the price point on Matz.