Fansided

MLB DFS picks and pivots September 26: The King says goodbye

By Brian Tulloch

SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 14: A fan waves "K" signs as Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners walks off the field after pitching in the second inning against the Chicago White Sox at T-Mobile Park on September 14, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 14: A fan waves "K" signs as Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners walks off the field after pitching in the second inning against the Chicago White Sox at T-Mobile Park on September 14, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
SEATTLE, WA – SEPTEMBER 14: A fan waves “K” signs as Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners walks off the field after pitching in the second inning against the Chicago White Sox at T-Mobile Park on September 14, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Thursday Pitching Breakdown:

We have a small five-game slate here on Thursday and with the large majority of these MLB games having little postseason implication, you are likely going to have some chalky core plays with the number of spots that actually matter.

Sean Manaea ($20.4K) is the highest priced arm on the slate and a massive -211 favorite against the Mariners, coming into this game in strong recent form with a 28.1% K rate over his last (and only) four starts of the 2019 season. Oakland right now is in the midst of a tight three-team AL Wild Card race so every game matters which gives us some stability in this choice and the Mariners projected lineup strikes out at a 22.1% rate against LHP this season which gives him some solid K upside.

On the other side of this game, Felix Hernandez ($11.1K) makes his final start for the Seattle Mariners after The King has made 418 career starts for Seattle – so narrative alert in a very big way. The Mariners crowd is going to be amped up to say goodbye to their ace who burst onto the scene in 2005 and while his career has been derailed by injury, it will leave a lasting legacy on this franchise.

From a DFS perspective, if you are playing Felix today (and I think it is viable), you are doing it because of the narrative and the emotion and you are ignoring the underlying metrics. The truth is, Felix has been terrible this year and this Oakland team is dangerous and has everything to play for.

The one thing to note as well, you could see King Felix get pulled at any point in this game so that the crowd can give him a well-deserved standing ovation much as the Mets did with David Wright last year in his final game. If Felix has a strong inning or two, do the Mariners pull him after hes gone out to the mound for the next inning so he gets to walk off to an ovation? As much as Felix wants to pitch, leaving him into labor after giving up a few runs is not how Seattle wants to send him off.

So yeah, Mr. Narrative himself is telling you to be careful playing the narrative.

Zack Wheeler ($19.4K) could be making his final start for the New York Mets as he is set to hit free agency, and with the Mets now eliminated (by the way huge congrats to the Brewers for their September run without Yelich), Wheeler will likely not be asked to go overly deep with a huge free-agent contract awaiting him.

Wheeler gets an elite match-up against the Marlins, one that he just put up 26 fantasy points against his last start against them and while there is longevity risk, the price under $20K feels like it has accounted for it.

Going Manaea and Wheeler feels like the chalk for good reason and the pricing is reasonable enough where it is not overly cumbersome to get both arms into your FantasyDraft build.