EPL DFS breakdown – Saturday 9/28/2019
By Vince Dray
EPL DFS: Top-Tier Attackers
Sergio Aguero (Manchester City @ Everton, $23) – It is becoming difficult to not recommend Aguero as your top stud on any slate. He has scored 8 times in 6 EPL games this year. He’s adding in a few peripherals right now, but with him it’s all about goals.
The fact that he’s cheaper than Harry Kane ($24) is ludicrous, especially when you consider Aguero has the best odds on the slate to score at -164. Like I mentioned above, this is not the best match-up to stack City, but getting your exposure is also important and Aguero is an easy way to do that.
Since Vegas isn’t expecting as many goals in this game compared to previous weeks, getting a guy like Kevin de Bruyne ($21) who gets more fantasy value from peripherals but still has solid goal upside (+162 to score) is a good play in this match-up as well.
Son Heung-Min (Southampton @ Tottenham, $20) – With Tottenham as second largest favorites on the slate and Harry Kane having second best odds on the slate to score, I expect him to be a popular play. However, I prefer Son on this slate for $4 less.
Son has been the more consistent fantasy performer this season with his floor well-established in the teens, still good goal upside at +120 to score, and a plus matchup at home.
Son adds in significantly more peripherals than Kane, and Kane only has slightly better goal-scoring upside. I expect Son to be somewhat popular on this slate, but City studs and Kane should bring his ownership back to tolerable levels.
Callum Wilson (West Ham @ Bournemouth, $19) – I love to ride Callum Wilson when he’s playing well, but I’m slightly skeptical of the match-up. West Ham has only given up 7 goals this year, and 5 were in one game to Manchester City.
They’ve only given up 2 goals in 6 games excluding that. This one will be a battle of two entities that are playing well right now, and I’m going to side with the home striker. While his negligible peripherals are worrisome, he’s +110 to score making him a good GPP pivot off other top-tier guys.
Raul Jimenez (Watford @ Wolverhampton, $17) – Another one of my favorite strikers who will likely go overlooked as well on Saturday is Jimenez in an elite match-up. Watford are literally giving up an average of 3.0 goals per game right now, and they just got lit up for 8 goals by Manchester City last weekend.
Although Wolverhampton are not nearly the same quality of an attacking team as City, they still have the talent to do damage. After 3 20+ point games in the first 4, Jimenez has sputtered slight as of late, but this is the ultimate matchup for him to get back on track.
Jimenez scored 17 times in his first EPL season last year and he already has 2 this year. He has good odds (+125) to add to that tally on Saturday.
Sebastien Haller (West Ham @ Bournemouth, $17) – If you’re not feeling Jimenez, you can get Haller for the same price. He has just slightly worse scoring odds (+130) than Jimenez, but he is playing on the road remember.
However, he is taking on a Bournemouth team that is allowing 1.7 goals per game. Haller doesn’t add in many attacking peripherals at all and, like Jimenez, hasn’t played well in the last two games. Picking one as a secondary stud in GPPs is a strategy I like, while playing both is extremely risky but could pay off if they both find the net like they should.